Our study aimed to (1) identify trajectories on different mental health components during a two-year follow-up of the COVID-19 pandemic and contextualise them according to pandemic periods; (2) investigate the associations between mental health trajectories and several exposures, and determine whether there were differences among the different mental health outcomes regarding these associations.

We included 5535 healthy individuals, aged 40–65 years old, from the Barcelona Brain Health Initiative (BBHI). Growth mixture models (GMM) were fitted to classify individuals into different trajectories for three mental health-related outcomes (psychological distress, personal growth and loneliness). Moreover, we fitted a multinomial regression model for each outcome considering class membership as the independent variable to assess the association with the predictors.

For the outcomes studied we identified three latent trajectories, differentiating two major trends, a large proportion of participants was classified into ‘resilient’ trajectories, and a smaller proportion into ‘chronic-worsening’ trajectories. For the former, we observed a lower susceptibility to the changes, whereas, for the latter, we noticed greater heterogeneity and susceptibility to different periods of the pandemic. From the multinomial regression models, we found global and cognitive health, and coping strategies as common protective factors among the studied mental health components. Nevertheless, some differences were found regarding the risk factors. Living alone was only significant for those classified into ‘chronic’ trajectories of loneliness, but not for the other outcomes. Similarly, secondary or higher education was only a risk factor for the ‘worsening’ trajectory of personal growth. Finally, smoking and sleeping problems were risk factors which were associated with the ‘chronic’ trajectory of psychological distress.

Our results support heterogeneity in reactions to the pandemic and the need to study different mental health-related components over a longer follow-up period, as each one evolves differently depending on the pandemic period. In addition, the understanding of modifiable protective and risk factors associated with these trajectories would allow the characterisation of these segments of the population to create targeted interventions.

The clinical course of psychotic disorders is highly variable. Typically, researchers have captured different course types using broad pre-defined categories. However, whether these adequately capture symptom trajectories of psychotic disorders has not been fully assessed. Using data from AESOP-10, we sought to identify classes of individuals with specific symptom trajectories over a 10-year follow-up using a data-driven approach.

AESOP-10 is a follow-up, at 10 years, of 532 incident cases with a first episode of psychosis initially identified in south-east London and Nottingham, UK. Using extensive information on fluctuations in the presence of psychotic symptoms, we fitted growth mixture models to identify latent trajectory classes that accounted for heterogeneity in the patterns of change in psychotic symptoms over time.

We had sufficient data on psychotic symptoms during the follow-up on 326 incident patients. A four-class quadratic growth mixture model identified four trajectories of psychotic symptoms: (1) remitting-improving (58.5%); (2) late decline (5.6%); (3) late improvement (5.4%); (4) persistent (30.6%). A persistent trajectory, compared with remitting-improving, was associated with gender (more men), black Caribbean ethnicity, low baseline education and high disadvantage, low premorbid IQ, a baseline diagnosis of non-affective psychosis and long DUP. Numbers were small, but there were indications that those with a late decline trajectory more closely resembled those with a persistent trajectory.

Our current approach to categorising the course of psychotic disorders may misclassify patients. This may confound efforts to elucidate the predictors of long-term course and related biomarkers.