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2 results

  • 11 - Further Examples from the World of Extremes

  • Paul Embrechts, Swiss Federal University (ETH), Zürich, Marius Hofert, The University of Hong Kong, Valérie Chavez-Demoulin, Université de Lausanne, Switzerland
  • Book:
    Risk Revealed
    Published online:
    05 April 2024
    Print publication:
    11 April 2024, pp 316-325

  • Summary

    Finding the elixir of life has always been an important quest of humanity. The topic of longevity, hence answering the question about the maximal age attainable (now and in the future) of humans has fascinated civilizations throughout the ages. Starting from the example of the oldest person on record, Jeanne Calmant, we introduce basic statistical techniques from survival (also reliability) analysis in order to study the process of aging from a statistical point of view. Recent findings on the topic are applied to the question of whether there is a plateauing of the hazard rate at high age. We then turn to the important problem of risk communication in the case of hurricanes. In particular, we compare and contrast the two hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Ida (2016) that hit the coast of Florida around New Orleans. Especially in the case of Ida, we comment upon the communication around the risk due to the ensuing flash floods over the northeast coast of the United States. New architectural and city planning initiatives, such as sponge cities, deserve our attention.

  • Reconstructing the Timing of Flash Floods Using 10Be Surface Exposure Dating at Leidy Creek Alluvial Fan and Valley, White Mountains, California–Nevada, USA

  • Markus Fuchs, Rebecca Reverman, Lewis A. Owen, Kurt L. Frankel
  • Journal:
    Quaternary Research / Volume 83 / Issue 1 / January 2015
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    20 January 2017, pp. 178-186

  • Large alluvial fans characterize the piedmonts of the White Mountains, California–Nevada, USA, with large boulders strewn across their surfaces. The boulders are interpreted as flash floods deposits with an unclear trigger for the transport process. Several triggers are possible, including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), thunderstorms or rainfall on snow cover. From a paleoenvironmental perspective, the origin of the flash floods is of fundamental importance. The alluvial fans that flank the White Mountains at Leidy Creek display particularly impressive examples of these deposits. The boulder deposits and the source catchment at Leidy Creek were examined using 10Be terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) surface exposure dating to help elucidate their age and origin. All boulders dated on the alluvial fans date to the Holocene. This is in accordance with the geomorphic analyses of the Leidy Creek catchment and its terraces and sediment ridges, which were also dated to the Holocene using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and 10Be surface exposure. The results suggest that the boulders on the alluvial fan were deposited by flash floods during thunderstorm events affecting the catchment of the Leidy Creek valley. Paleomonsoonal-induced mid-Holocene flash floods are the most plausible explanation for the discharges needed for these boulder aggradations, but a regional dataset is needed to confirm this explanation.