We can make better decisions when we have a better understanding of the different sources of variance that impact job performance ratings. A failure to do so cannot only lead to inaccurate conclusions when interpreting job performance ratings, but often misguided efforts aimed at improving our ability to explain and predict them. In this paper, we outline six recommendations relating to the interpretation of predictive validity coefficients and efforts aimed at predicting job performance ratings. The first three focus on the need to evaluate the effectiveness of selection instruments and systems based only on the variance they can possibly account for. When doing so, we find that it is not only possible to account for the majority of the variance in job performance ratings that most select systems can possibly predict, but that we’ve been able to account for this variance for years. Our last three recommendations focus on the need to incorporate components related to additional sources of variance in our predictive models. We conclude with a discussion of their implications for both research and practice.

As jobs become increasingly complex, organizations are challenged with finding effective ways to select and hire successful employees. The high level of uncertainty generally associated with hiring decisions is greater for complex jobs where it is difficult to identify the predictors of good job performance. Intuition research has found expert intuition to be effective in highly uncertain decision environments. However, most employment selection research dismisses the use of intuition and argues that even expert interviewers should not rely on their intuition. To bridge the two research streams, this paper addresses the research question: for complex jobs, can the intuition of expert decision-makers enhance the effectiveness of hiring decisions? The hypotheses were tested via an experimental study design using expert and nonexpert interviewer samples. The results demonstrate that, when recruiting for complex jobs, interviewer expertise does increase the quality of intuitive hiring decisions.

We explore a number of new developments in the field of employee recruitment and selection with a focus on recent technological developments. We discuss examples of technological developments across the four stages of the recruitment and selection process. In the attraction stage we discuss how on-line/internet recruitment and especially social networking websites have changed dramatically the focus of attracting candidates effectively. In the next stage of screening, we discuss how cybervetting and applicant tracking systems offer opportunities but also threats for recruiters and candidates. In the third stage of employee selection, we focus especially on two new selection methods; the asynchronous/digital interview and gamification/games-based assessment, along with the critical role and impact applicant reactions have on the selection process. Finally, we briefly discuss the main technological developments in on-boarding and socialization, and we conclude with a few suggestions for future research in this field.