We analyze the impacts of agricultural subsidies on farm-level production decisions and input use under price, yield, and policy uncertainty for a risk-averse farmer. Using U.S. farm-level data and weighted ordinary least squares, we find that decoupled payments had little impact on agricultural chemical expenditures (our proxy for use) when the payments were first introduced in 1996. However, after 2004 there is a positive, significant relationship between decoupled payments and agricultural chemical expenditures. The results suggest that updating, introduced in 2002, and expectations of future updating caused decoupled payments to become coupled to current input use and, ultimately, production.

Using a model of farm household resource allocation and data from the USDA-ERS Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), this study compares the effects of various categories of farm program payments on time allocation by farm operators and spouses. Results suggest that agricultural market transition payments (AMTA) increase leisure hours of both farm operators and spouses. Loan deficiency payments (LDP) and payments that combine market loan assistance (MLA) and disaster payments are shown to reduce leisure. The study also finds that AMTA payments exhibit a much higher degree of income transfer efficiency than the LDP and MLA payments.