Bovine somatotropin (BST), a new technology capable of enhancing a cow's ability to produce milk by 7-23 percent, is expected to be available for commercial use soon. Ex ante survey procedures are used to determine the potential effect of BST on the size distribution of dairy farms in the Southeast. Results of logit analysis indicate a positive link between farm size and (1) farmers' knowledge of BST and (2) intentions to adopt early, suggesting BST will not be scale neutral. An estimated “price elasticity” of -1.8 to -2.1 indicates an elastic demand for the input Price, therefore, may be an effective instrument for attenuating the scale bias.

The potential economic impacts of the introduction of bovine somatotropin (bST) on U.S. milk supply and demand are analyzed using a national model of Class I and Class II milk markets. The results indicate that the introduction of bST will lead to lower milk prices, higher milk production, and larger government purchases of dairy products. Unlike previous economic analyses of bST, this analysis considers both supply and demand effects of bST. The implication is that studies that ignore potential demand-side effects may produce misleading results.

A mailed questionnaire wasr used to assess consumer concerns and potential consumption response attributable to the introduction of bovine somatotropin (bST). Responses from 605 households in Virginia are described and analyzed. Logit models were estimated to identify which issues shape consumers' decisions to alter milk purchases contingent on the introduction of bST and to determine whether socioeconomic characteristics explain consumers' attitudes toward these issues. Estimates based on survey responses point toward sizable reductions in fluid milk purchases if bST is introduced. Large retail price reductions are predicted to be insufficient to offset these estimated decreases. Consumer education and marketing strategies are discussed.