Understanding the timing of weed emergence is crucial to effective management. Management practices implemented too early may fail to completely control late-emerging seedlings, whereas management practices implemented too late will suffer from low efficacy. Weed emergence times reflect biological factors, such as seed dormancy and germination requirements, as well as environmental conditions. We conducted a systematic review of studies that developed models to predict weed emergence temporal patterns. We screened 1,854 studies, 98 of which were included in the final dataset. Most of the studies included were conducted in North America (51%) or Europe (30%). A wide variety of weed species (102) and families (21) were included, and many studies modeled several weeds. Grass weeds (Poaceae) were modeled most frequently (83 instances). Most weeds (40%) had base temperature ${T_{\rm{b}}}$ values between 0 and 5 C, and 38% had base water potential ${{\rm{\psi }}_{\rm{b}}}$ ranging from −1.0 to −0.5 MPa. Most studies used empirical parametric models, such as Weibull (40%) or Gompertz (30%) models. Nonparametric and mechanistic models were also represented. Models varied in their biological and environmental data requirements. In general, empirical parametric models based on hydrothermal time (i.e., time above base temperature and water potential thresholds) represented a good balance between ease of use and prediction accuracy. Soft computing approaches such as artificial neural networks demonstrated substantial potential in situations with complex emergence patterns and limited data availability, although they (soft computing approaches) can be susceptible to overfitting. Our study also demonstrated variability in model performance and limited generalizability across species and regions. This finding underscores the need for context-specific and well-validated weed emergence models to inform management, especially in the context of climate change.

The influence of temperature and water availability on seed germination can vary across the geographic range of species with a large distribution. Betula pendula is a widely spread European tree that has differentiated into two narrowly distributed taxa, endemic to Mediterranean mountains: Betula aetnensis in Sicily and B. fontqueri in Spain and Morocco. We tested the hypothesis that the regeneration niche, expressed by temperature and water potential thresholds, varies across these species and is influenced by the local climate. Seeds were collected from six populations of B. pendula, one of B. fontqueri and two of B. aetnensis. Germination tests were conducted between 5 and 30°C. The thermal thresholds were calculated before and after cold stratification. The osmotic potential tested ranged from 0 to −1.5 MPa. Time to reach 30 and 50% of germination was calculated by fitting non-linear models. Germination was promoted by high temperatures, but the response to stratification was heterogeneous. Tb and Ψb differed between and within species. Tb ranged between 2.22 and 8.94°C for unstratified seeds. Mediterranean species had higher drought tolerance, while B. pendula showed contrasting responses to low water potential. Ψb reached a minimum value of −1.15 MPa in B. fontqueri. High temperatures influenced the Tb of unstratified seeds negatively, while, after stratification, the Tb increased with precipitation in the driest month. The heterogeneity observed could reflect higher genetic variability in marginal populations of silver birch. Knowledge of their germination ecology may be useful to mitigate future impacts of climate change on core populations of B. pendula.

For seed banks showing seasonal changes in their dormancy level, the possibility of predicting temporal patterns of emergence depends on establishing a robust relationship between temperature and the rate of dormancy loss and induction. However, although the effect of temperature on dormancy loss has been extensively studied, less work has been advocated to the quantification of temperature effects on dormancy induction. In the present work, we quantified temperature regulation of dormancy induction in Polygonum aviculare seeds using the hydrotime model. To study induction into secondary dormancy, seeds previously released from primary dormancy through stratification at 5°C were stored at dormancy-inductive temperatures of 10, 15, 20 and 25°C for different periods. During storage, seeds were germinated at different temperatures and water potentials, and hydrotime model parameters were derived. Changes in hydrotime model parameters (mean base water potential for germination and its standard deviation, and the hydrotime required for germination) during dormancy induction were described by adjusting exponential equations. Obtained results indicated a minimum temperature for dormancy induction of 8.7°C and the existence of a bi-linear relationship between rate of induction into secondary dormancy and storage temperature, in which storage temperatures around 25°C showed a higher dormancy induction rate than those below 20°C. Developed model equations were then used to predict changes in germination behaviour during dormancy induction at different temperatures, showing a good agreement between simulated and observed values.

Laboratory studies were conducted to describe germination and seedling elongation of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. (common ragweed) seed. The germination process was tested for the interaction of temperature and water potential across eight thermo-periods (7.5, 12.5, 17.5, 22.5, 27.5, 32.5, 37.5, and 42.5 C) and 12 water potentials (0, −0.03, −0.06, −0.1, −0.2, −0.4, −0.6, −0.9, −1.2, −1.5, −1.8, and −2.1 mPa). The rate of seedling shoot and radicle elongation was described as a function of temperature and tested for eight day: night temperature treatments (10: 5, 15 : 10, 20 : 15, 25 : 20, 30 : 25, 35 : 30, 40 : 35, and 45 : 40 C). The rate of germination was mathematically modeled by a Weibull function. Probit analysis was used to determine the cardinal temperatures (base, optimum, and maximum) and base water potential (αb ). The base temperature (T b), optimum temperature (T opt), maximum temperature (T max), and αb for A. artemisiifolia germination were estimated as 3.6, 30.9, and 40 C and −0.8 mPa, respectively. The rates of shoot and radicle elongation were described by regression models. The T b , T opt, and T max for shoot and radicle elongation were estimated as 7.7 and 5.1, 29.5 and 31.4, and 43.0 and 44.3 C, respectively. A mathematical model describing the process of A. artemisiifolia seed germination in terms of hydrothermal time (θHT) was derived. The θHT model described the phenology of A. artemisiifolia seed germination using a single curve generated from the relationship of temperature and water potential. This model can help in predicting germination and emergence of A. artemisiifolia under field conditions.

Silky windgrass and annual bluegrass are among the most troublesome weeds in northern European winter crops, while problems with rattail fescue have been especially linked to direct-drilling practices. This study investigated the germination patterns of silky windgrass, annual bluegrass, and rattail fescue in multiple water potentials and temperature regimes. Temperature and water potential effects were similar between silky windgrass and rattail fescue, but differed from annual bluegrass. The three grass weeds were able to germinate under low water potential (−1.0 MPa), although water potentials ≤−0.25 MPa strongly delayed their germination. Silky windgrass and rattail fescue seeds were able to germinate at 1 C, while the minimum temperature for annual bluegrass germination was 5 C. Germination of silky windgrass and rattail fescue was very similar across temperature and water potentials, which implies similar emergence flushes under field conditions, allowing management interventions to follow the same scheme.

Understanding how plant traits interact with climate to determine plant niches is decisive for predicting climate change impacts. While lifespan and seed size modify the importance of germination timing, germination traits such as base temperature and base water potential directly translate climatic conditions into germination timing, impacting performance in later life stages. Yet we do not know how base temperature, base water potential, seed mass, lifespan and climate are related. We tested the relationships between base temperature and base water potential for germination, seed size and lifespan while controlling for bioclimatic regions. We also quantified the phylogenetic signal in germination traits and seed size using Pagel's λ. We used a worldwide data set of germination responses to temperature and moisture, seed size and lifespan of 240 seed plants from 49 families. Both germination temperature and moisture are negatively related to seed size. Annual plants show a negative relation between seed size and base water potential, whereas perennials display a negative relation between base temperature and seed mass. Pagel's λ highlighted the slow evolution of base temperature for germination, comparable to seed mass while base water potential was revealed to be labile. In the future, base water potential and seed mass can be used when moisture niches of plants are to be predicted. Lifespan, seed size and base temperature should be taken into account when analysing thermal limits of species distributions.

Predicting weed emergence dynamics can help farmers to plan more effective weed control. The hydrothermal time concept has been used to model emergence as a function of temperature and water potential. Application of this concept is possible if the specific biological thresholds are known. This article provides a data set of base temperature and water potential of eight maize weeds (velvetleaf, redroot pigweed, common lambsquarters, large crabgrass, barnyardgrass, yellow foxtail, green foxtail, and johnsongrass). For five of these species, two ecotypes from two extreme regions of the predominant maize-growing area in Italy (Veneto and Tuscany), were collected and compared to check possible differences that may arise from using the same thresholds for different populations. Seedling emergence of velvetleaf and johnsongrass were modeled using three different approaches: (1) thermal time calculated assuming 5 C as base temperature for both species; (2) thermal time using the specific estimated base temperatures; and (3) hydrothermal time using the specific, estimated base temperatures and water potentials. All the species had base temperatures greater than 10 C, with the exception of velvetleaf (3.9 to 4.4 C) and common lambsquarters (2.0 to 2.6 C). All species showed a calculated base-water potential equal or up to −1.00 MPa. The thresholds of the two ecotypes were similar for all the studied species, with the exception of redroot pigweed, for which the Veneto ecotype showed a water potential lower than −0.41 MPa, whereas it was −0.62 MPa for the Tuscany ecotype. Similar thresholds have been found to be useful in hydrothermal time models covering two climatic regions where maize is grown in Italy. Furthermore, a comparison between the use of specific, estimated, and common thresholds for modeling weed emergence showed that, for a better determination of weed control timing, it is often necessary to estimate the specific thresholds.

Early plant establishment through seed germination and seedling emergence is a crucial process that determines seedling number, emergence time distribution and the early growth of seedlings, all of which are affected by soil climate and soil structure. In the current context of climate change, in which increasing the diversity of cultivated species is considered desirable, and new tillage practices are considerably modifying top-soil surface characteristics, we need to improve our ability to model the effects of the environment on plant establishment. Using a trait-based and model-based framework, we aimed to identify general relationships between seed and seedling traits (e.g. seed mass and lipid content, seedling diameter, base temperature) and germination and emergence model parameters (e.g. time to mid-germination, shoot elongation rate) measured for 18 genotypes belonging to 14 species. Relationships were also investigated among model parameters or traits. Germination rates were faster for species with a high base temperature and for species with seed reserves located principally in the embryo (rather than the endosperm or perisperm). During heterotrophic growth, maximal shoot length and elongation rate increased with seed dry mass. The sensitivity of seedlings to soil obstacles was negatively related to shoot diameter. Thus apart from the known effects of seed mass on seedling establishment, we found that seed reserve location, seedling shoot diameter and shape affected germination rate and emergence success. Such generic rules linking plant traits to germination and emergence parameters enhance our understanding of the determinants of environmental effects on plant establishment success.

Legumes are crops that develop in cropping systems with relatively low inputs and are suitable to a more sustainable agriculture. Successful crop establishment, which is crucial for reliable plant production, depends on seed quality, environmental factors and genotypes. We studied pea and bean germination and seedling growth at various temperatures (5–40°C) and water potentials ( − 0.2 to − 1.5 MPa) using winter and spring pea and two common bean seeds produced in different conditions. The germination base temperature was − 1.1°C for pea seeds, and seeds of the winter genotype germinated more rapidly than those of the spring genotype. The base temperature for bean seed germination was 5.1–9.6°C, depending on the seed lot. The germination base water potential was about − 2 MPa for both species. The base temperatures for shoot elongation were higher (3–6°C) than those for germination. A review of the literature on other legumes confirmed that the differences in the responses of the legume seeds and seedlings to different temperatures were associated with their geographic origin. These results help understanding of pea and bean crop establishment, provide crop model parameter values and contribute to the search for genetic variability.