As Russia massed troops on Ukraine’s borders in late 2021, few believed that Russia would actually carry out a full-scale invasion. On February 24, 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine along four axes. Contrary to expectations, Ukraine put up a spirited response and Russia’s attack stalled. The West enacted extensive sanctions and provided arms to Ukraine. By the summer of 2022 the war bogged down, with Russia in control of roughly a fifth of Ukraine’s territory. Both sides appeared committed to pursuing success on the battlefield rather than the bargaining table. The war was turning into a contest of logistics, resupply, and endurance.

As the conflict in Donbas stabilized, Ukraine and Russia reached an impasse over how the Minsk agreements should be implemented. Ukraine gradually strengthened its ties with Europe, and secured the separation of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church from Moscow’s control. The election of Volodymyr Zelensky in 2019 led to hopes for a breakthrough in negotiations, but little progress was made. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin enacted constitutional changes that would potentially keep him in power until 2036. While not quite frozen, the conflict appeared likely to endure at a manageable level of violence, potentially for many years.