We examined the relationship between temperature and emergence of yellow nutsedge tubers to generate predictive models for the arid southwestern United States. Field experiments were conducted in California and Arizona to obtain phenological and temperature data needed to generate degree-day models. The effect of air temperature on emergence was tested with available programs using four methods to calculate degree-days (single sine, double sine, single triangle, and double triangle). Separate models were tested for each genotype examined (Arizona source and California source) as no one model was a good predictor of emergence when data were pooled. Results indicate that there is year to year variation in model accuracy but predictions of date of emergence can be made to within 2 d of actual emergence. This information can be used to schedule cultivations to reduce early yellow nutsedge competition in the field.