We consider the stationary solution Z of the Markov chain {Zn}n∈ℕ defined by Zn+1=ψn+1(Zn), where {ψn}n∈ℕ is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random Lipschitz functions. We estimate the probability of the event {Z>x} when x is large, and develop a state-dependent importance sampling estimator under a set of assumptions on ψn such that, for large x, the event {Z>x} is governed by a single large jump. Under natural conditions, we show that our estimator is strongly efficient. Special attention is paid to a class of perpetuities with heavy tails.
