Current strategic plans for Air Traffic Management (ATM) envisage a transition from radar control to a trajectory-based system. Part 1 sketched the historical origins of separation minima and then analysed the safety thinking behind current minima and the issues involved in risk modelling. Part 2 examines the future situation. This focuses on the intermediate steps to the final system – upgraded capabilities in a mixed-equipage system. Future traffic mixes two categories of traffic: V aircraft, i.e. vectored traditional ATC-handled, and 4D aircraft, i.e. flying on 4D trajectories. Conflict probe and other decision support tools will need to be in place, inter alia to prevent controller workload from increasing. Conceptually, future risks in the transition period will be the sum of three types of aircraft encounter risk: V/V, 4D/4D and 4D/V. These pose different kinds of problem for ATC, appropriate conflict alerting systems and risk assessment. The numbers of 4D/V encounters increase rapidly with growth in the proportion of 4D aircraft. With reduced minima, airborne collision avoidance systems would be unlikely to resolve higher relative velocity encounters were the ATC system to fail. It would be a difficult decision to reduce markedly ATC separation minima for any category of aircraft encounters during the transition period.
