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1 results

  • 15 - Scenarios

  • from Part III - Knowledges
  • Edited by Kari De Pryck, Université de Genève, Mike Hulme, University of Cambridge
  • Book:
    A Critical Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    Published online:
    08 December 2022
    Print publication:
    22 December 2022, pp 137-147
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  • Summary

    Scenarios are among the most visible and widely used products of the IPCC. Many kinds of scenarios are used in climate research, but emissions scenarios and the socio-economic assumptions that underpin them have a distinct status because the IPCC orchestrated their development. They have evolved from assessment cycle to assessment cycle and serve as ‘boundary objects’ across Working Groups and as instruments of policy relevance. The field of Integrated Assessment Modelling has emerged to produce these scenarios, thereby taking centre stage within the IPCC assessment process. Because these scenarios harmonise assumptions about the future across disciplines, they are essential tools for the IPCC’s production of a shared assessment of climate research and for ensuring the policy relevance of this assessment. Yet, the reliance on a relatively small set of complex models to generate scenarios spurs concerns about transparency, black-boxed assumptions, and the power of IAMs to define the ‘possibility space’.