Estimating the population parameters, performance and factors that influence reproduction from long-term, individual-based monitoring data is the gold standard for effective wildlife management and conservation. Yet this information is often difficult and costly to collect or inaccessible to managers. We synthesized a 20-year set of individual-based monitoring data from a subset of black rhinoceros Diceros bicornis subpopulations across a range of environmental conditions in Namibia. Our findings demonstrate that despite the relatively arid landscape in Namibia, the black rhinoceros metapopulation is performing well, measured by age at first reproduction, inter-birth interval, population growth and survivorship. Information-theoretic modelling revealed that a univariate model including normalized differential vegetative index had a greater influence upon age at first reproduction than population density. The inter-birth interval model set identified cumulative rainfall during the 15 months prior to the birth month as the top model, although the mean normalized differential vegetative index during the inter-birth interval was comparable. There was little evidence for density-dependence effects on reproduction. These findings suggest that although browse quality could have a greater impact on parameters spanning multiple years, shorter-term parameters could be more influenced by rainfall. Our analysis also revealed a synchronous pattern of conceptions occurring in the rainy season. Our study provides a set of population parameter estimates for Namibian black rhinoceros subpopulations and preliminary insights on factors driving their reproduction. These expand our collective knowledge of global black rhinoceros population dynamics and improve our confidence and capability to adaptively manage the black rhinoceros metapopulation of Namibia.

Insights on the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are critical for designing and implementing policies to alleviate the food security burden it may have caused, and for bolstering rural communities against similar macroeconomic shocks in the future. Yet estimating the causal effects of the pandemic is difficult due to its ubiquitous nature and entanglement with other shocks. In this descriptive study, we combine high-resolution satellite imagery to control for plot-level rainfall with household socio-economic panel data from 2014, 2016, 2019 and 2020, to differentiate the effect of the pandemic from climatic shocks on food security in Morogoro, Tanzania. We find evidence of decreased incomes, increased prices of staple foods, and increased food insecurity in 2020 relative to previous years, and link these changes to the pandemic by asking households about their perceptions of COVID-19. Respondents overwhelmingly attribute economic hardships to the pandemic, with perceived impacts differing by asset level.

Nest predators use visual, acoustic and chemical cues to locate nests. In the Neotropics, predation is high being the main cause of nest failure. Despite that, it is still not completely clear what kind of information predators are using to find nests or whether predators respond differently according to habitat characteristics. Here, we executed an experimental manipulation to investigate how different ecological factors influence nest predation probability. We hypothesised that egg conspicuousness, nest clustering and a more open vegetation structure would increase nest predation probability, and that nest predation would be higher during the breeding season of most avian species in the region. We used artificial nests baited with plasticine and quail eggs (Coturnix coturnix), manipulated egg coloration and nest density. Artificial nests were distributed over forest and savanna-like vegetations. Overall predation rate was 40.9%. We found that nests baited with conspicuous eggs, located in open habitats, at higher densities and during the dry period were more predated. Results suggest that main predators must be visually orientated, and that egg crypsis is an important trait for open-nest species in the area. Moreover, a higher nest density may affect predator behaviour, favouring an increase in nest searching, which may be facilitated in open habitats.

Typhoid fever is a major cause of illness and mortality in low- and middle-income settings. We investigated the association of typhoid fever and rainfall in Blantyre, Malawi, where multi-drug-resistant typhoid has been transmitting since 2011. Peak rainfall preceded the peak in typhoid fever by approximately 15 weeks [95% confidence interval (CI) 13.3, 17.7], indicating no direct biological link. A quasi-Poisson generalised linear modelling framework was used to explore the relationship between rainfall and typhoid incidence at biologically plausible lags of 1–4 weeks. We found a protective effect of rainfall anomalies on typhoid fever, at a two-week lag (P = 0.006), where a 10 mm lower-than-expected rainfall anomaly was associated with up to a 16% reduction in cases (95% CI 7.6, 26.5). Extreme flooding events may cleanse the environment of S. Typhi, while unusually low rainfall may reduce exposure from sewage overflow. These results add to evidence that rainfall anomalies may play a role in the transmission of enteric pathogens, and can help direct future water and sanitation intervention strategies for the control of typhoid fever.

Conservation agriculture (CA) practices are becoming more important in Mediterranean rainfed areas due to their potential to minimize climatic risk, reduce soil erosion, and improve soil quality and water availability. Due to minimum soil disturbance and crop residue retention, the soil environment for crop growth and development can differ between CA and conventional tillage (CT) practice. However, breeding targets for improving yield performance in CA system remain poorly explored. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of elite genotypes of barley, chickpea, lentil, and wheat grown under CA, a promising alternative agricultural practice in the Mediterranean rainfed conditions. A three-year field study, with contrasting rainfall pattern, was conducted in the International Center for Agriculture Research in the Dry Areas’s research field in Morocco to evaluate the tillage × genotype interaction and its consequence for yield performance of barley, chickpea, lentil, and wheat. Thirteen elite genotypes for each crop were planted under both CA and CT systems. Wheat and chickpea produced significantly higher grain yield (+62% for wheat and +43% for chickpea) under CA than in CT, while lentil and barley performed equally under both systems. Significant effect of tillage × genotype was more frequent for chickpea and wheat than for barley and lentil. Increased yield under CA, mainly in dry year, was associated with higher harvest index (HI). For each crop species yield was mainly influenced by rainfall amount and distribution (75–88% yield variation), and tillage × genotype was of little importance. The overall results suggest that a specific breeding program for CA in lentil, chickpea, wheat, and barley may not be efficient. Few tillage × genotype interaction, especially in dry years, indicated that breeding target on increasing HI, tolerance to drought (high yield in dry years), and potential yield (high yield in wet year) can help to improve yield performance of chickpea, lentil, and wheat genotypes in CA system. Varieties with wider adaptability considering drought tolerance, higher yield with stability, and adoption of CA practices are important in the context of the Mediterranean rainfed environment. Integrating trade-off analysis between yield potential and stability in a rainfall gradient in both CT and CA in the national certification scheme of varieties may be more efficient than developing breeding programs for each type of tillage system.

Temporal and spatial patterns in flowering phenology were assessed for eight tropical African tree species. Specifically, the frequency and seasonality of flowering at seven sites in central Africa were determined using field data, graphical analysis and circular statistics. Additionally, spatial variation in the timing of flowering across species range was investigated using herbarium data, analysing the relative influence of latitude, longitude and timing of the dry season with a Bayesian circular generalized linear model. Annual flowering was found for 20 out of the 25 populations studied. For 21 populations located at the north of the climatic hinge flowering was occurring during the dry season. The analysis of herbarium collections revealed a significant shift in the timing of flowering with latitude for E. suaveolens, and with the timing of the dry season for M. excelsa (and to a lesser extent L. alata), with the coexistence of two flowering peaks near the equator where the distribution of monthly rainfall is bimodal. For the other species, none of latitude, longitude or timing of the dry season had an effect on the timing of flowering. Our study highlights the need to identify the drivers of the flowering phenology of economically important African tree species.

The alien cynipid wasp Dryocosmus kuriphilus Yasumatsu, 1951 is a serious pest of chestnuts (Castanea spp.) in Japan, North America and Europe, causing fruit losses while inducing galls in buds. While D. kuriphilus galls have a recognizable and roughly invariable globular shape, their size varies, reaching up to 4 cm in diameter. Among other factors, such variation may depend on different climatic conditions in different attacked areas. Here, we sampled and measured 375 D. kuriphilus galls from 25 localities throughout the Iberian Peninsula, including both cold and rainy northern (Eurosiberian) areas and warm and dry central-southern (Mediterranean) areas, to test the effects of climate and geographical location on gall morphology. The analyses indicate that gall mass and volume follow a pattern that can be associated with a climatic cline. In particular, the Eurosiberian galls were smaller than the Mediterranean galls according to differences in climatic conditions. In the southern areas, the greater insolation regime does not allow the chestnut trees to be distributed at lower altitudes, but the high rainfall and humidity regime of the mountain enclaves allow their presence. These conditions of insolation and precipitation seem to influence the morphological characteristics of the galls of D. kuriphilus.

This study uses household panel data from Malawi's 2010/11 and 2012/13 Integrated Household Panel Survey to investigate the mitigating role of its Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP) against the deleterious impacts of negative rainfall shock on households’ welfare in rural Malawi. The study finds that the FISP has a cushioning role on the negative impact of rainfall shocks. The use of a farm input subsidy scheme enables rural households to substantially increase their food consumption and overall food security, despite the increasing threat of climate change. The results of this study highlight the importance of agricultural policy, such as the FISP, in rural households’ mitigation of weather risk.