Large ham weight losses (WL) in dry-curing are undesired as they lead to a loss of marketable product and penalise the quality of the dry-cured ham. The availability of early predictions of WL may ease the adaptation of the dry-curing process to the characteristics of the thighs and increase the effectiveness of selective breeding in enhancing WL. Aims of this study were (i) to develop Bayesian and Random Forests (RFs) regression models for the prediction of ham WL during dry-curing using on-site infrared spectra of raw ham subcutaneous fat, carcass and raw ham traits as predictors and (ii) to estimate genetic parameters for WL and their predictions (P-WL). Visible-near infrared spectra were collected on the transversal section of the subcutaneous fat of raw hams. Carcass traits were carcass weight, carcass backfat depth, lean meat content and weight of raw hams. Raw ham traits included measures of ham subcutaneous fat depth and linear scores for round shape, subcutaneous fat thickness and marbling of the visible muscles of the thigh. Measures of WL were available for 1672 hams. The best prediction accuracies were those of a Bayesian regression model including the average spectrum, carcass and raw ham traits, with R2 values in validation of 0.46, 0.55 and 0.62, for WL at end of salting (23 days), resting (90 days) and curing (12 months), respectively. When WL at salting was used as an additional predictor of total WL, the R2 in validation was 0.67. Bayesian regressions were more accurate than RFs models in predicting all the investigated traits. Restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimates of genetic parameters for WL and P-WL at the end of curing were estimated through a bivariate animal model including 1672 measures of WL and 8819 P-WL records. Results evidenced that the traits are heritable (h2 ± SE was 0.27 ± 0.04 for WL and 0.39 ± 0.04 for P-WL), and the additive genetic correlation is positive and high (ra = 0.88 ± 0.03). Prediction accuracy of ham WL is high enough to envisage a future use of prediction models in identifying batches of hams requiring an adaptation of the processing conditions to optimise results of the manufacturing process. The positive and high genetic correlation detected between WL and P-WL at the end of dry-curing, as well as the estimated heritability for P-WL, suggests that P-WL can be successfully used as an indicator trait of the measured WL in pig breeding programs.

Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls? The authors address this question by comparing eight forecasting models for British general elections: one based on voters' expectations of who will win and seven based on who voters themselves intend to vote for (including ‘uniform national swing model’ and ‘cube rule’ models). The data come from ComRes and Gallup polls as well as the Essex Continuous Monitoring Surveys, 1950–2017, yielding 449 months with both expectation and intention polls. The large sample size permits comparisons of the models' prediction accuracy not just in the months prior to the election, but in the years leading up to it. Vote expectation models outperform vote intention models in predicting both the winning party and parties' seat shares.

A plethora of sensors and information technologies with applications to the precision nutrition of herbivores have been developed and continue to be developed. The nutritional processes start outside of the animal body with the available feed (quantity and quality) and continue inside it once the feed is consumed, degraded in the gastrointestinal tract and metabolised by organs and tissues. Finally, some nutrients are wasted via urination, defecation and gaseous emissions through breathing and belching whereas remaining nutrients ensure maintenance and production. Nowadays, several processes can be monitored in real-time using new technologies, but although these provide valuable data ‘as is’, further gains could be obtained using this information as inputs to nutrition simulation models to predict unmeasurable variables in real-time and to forecast outcomes of interest. Data provided by sensors can create synergies with simulation models and this approach has the potential to expand current applications. In addition, data provided by sensors could be used with advanced analytical techniques such as data fusion, optimisation techniques and machine learning to improve their value for applications in precision animal nutrition. The present paper reviews technologies that can monitor different nutritional processes relevant to animal production, profitability, environmental management and welfare. We discussed the model-data fusion approach in which data provided by sensor technologies can be used as input of nutrition simulation models in near-real time to produce more accurate, certain and timely predictions. We also discuss some examples that have taken this model-data fusion approach to complement the capabilities of both models and sensor data, and provided examples such as predicting feed intake and methane emissions. Challenges with automatising the nutritional management of individual animals include monitoring and predicting of the flow of nutrients including nutrient intake, quantity and composition of body growth and milk production, gestation, maintenance and physical activities at the individual animal level. We concluded that the livestock industries are already seeing benefits from the development of sensor and information technologies, and this benefit is expected to grow exponentially soon with the integration of nutrition simulation models and techniques for big data analysis. However, this approach may need re-evaluating or performing new empirical research in both fields of animal nutrition and simulation modelling to accommodate a new type of data provided by the sensor technologies.

Field experiments were conducted to evaluate the critical period for velvetleaf interference with cotton and to assess the reliability of using weed growth variables as predictors of cotton lint yield losses. An inverse linear relationship existed between velvetleaf dry weight and cotton lint yield. The relationship between the number of velvetleaf main-stem nodes or velvetleaf height with cotton lint yield was best described by quadratic regression equations. Weed dry weight appeared to be the most accurate predictor followed by weed height and by number of velvetleaf main-stem nodes. A nonlinear equation best described percent lint yield loss as a function of critical-period interference intervals.

Four field experiments were conducted to measure the effects of seven Ipomoea hederacea (L.) Jacq. densities on Gossypium hirsutum L. lint yield, stripper-harvest efficiency, and fiber properties. The seven densities were 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, and 12 weeds 10 m−1 of row. Data were used to develop prediction models to compare with those previously constructed that used fewer experiments and fewer weed densities in this range. Gossypium hirsutum lint yield in kilograms per hectare and as a percentage of the weed-free control best fit a linear regression model. Gossypium hirsutum lint yield reductions for each increase of one weed 10 m−1 of row ranged from 30.7 to 36.2 kg ha−1 at Chickasha and from 35.4 to 36.4 kg ha−1 at Perkins. Lint yield reductions for each weed 10 m−1 of row ranged from 3.8 to 6.9% at Chickasha and from 3.9 to 6.0% at Perkins. All plots could be mechanically stripper harvested, except for the 12-weed density at Chickasha in 1994 and the 10- and 12-weed densities at Perkins in 1996. Harvest efficiencies were not significantly different in any experiment. The only fiber properties to display significant differences were micronaire and strength at Chickasha in 1994. Prediction models calculated herein were highly similar to those previously constructed.

Fruit and vegetable consumption produces changes in several biomarkers in blood. The present study aimed to examine the dose–response curve between fruit and vegetable consumption and carotenoid (α-carotene, β-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin, lycopene, lutein and zeaxanthin), folate and vitamin C concentrations. Furthermore, a prediction model of fruit and vegetable intake based on these biomarkers and subject characteristics (i.e. age, sex, BMI and smoking status) was established. Data from twelve diet-controlled intervention studies were obtained to develop a prediction model for fruit and vegetable intake (including and excluding fruit and vegetable juices). The study population in the present individual participant data meta-analysis consisted of 526 men and women. Carotenoid, folate and vitamin C concentrations showed a positive relationship with fruit and vegetable intake. Measures of performance for the prediction model were calculated using cross-validation. For the prediction model of fruit, vegetable and juice intake, the root mean squared error (RMSE) was 258·0 g, the correlation between observed and predicted intake was 0·78 and the mean difference between observed and predicted intake was − 1·7 g (limits of agreement: − 466·3, 462·8 g). For the prediction of fruit and vegetable intake (excluding juices), the RMSE was 201·1 g, the correlation was 0·65 and the mean bias was 2·4 g (limits of agreement: − 368·2, 373·0 g). The prediction models which include the biomarkers and subject characteristics may be used to estimate average intake at the group level and to investigate the ranking of individuals with regard to their intake of fruit and vegetables when validating questionnaires that measure intake.