Agricultural emissions in most countries have been increasing against a backdrop of decreasing non-agricultural emissions. The climate change treaties contain a qualification that appears to exempt the agricultural sector from mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions where there is a ‘threat to food production’. This potential mitigation exception gives rise to the risk that states will invoke a threat to food production in order to shield their agricultural sector from intensifying mitigation pressure. A systematic analysis of documentation issued pursuant to the climate treaties reveals that many states, both developed and developing, have made statements suggesting that their agricultural sector is relieved of some or all of the pressure placed on other economic sectors to deliver mitigation outcomes. However, this concern that mitigation of agricultural emissions will threaten food production is only weakly supported, even as it threatens achievement of the Paris Agreement's goal of keeping global warming ‘well below 2°C’.
