Severe fatigue and cognitive complaints are frequently reported after SARS-CoV-2 infection and may be accompanied by depressive symptoms and/or limitations in physical functioning. The long-term sequelae of COVID-19 may be influenced by biomedical, psychological, and social factors, the interplay of which is largely understudied over time. We aimed to investigate how the interplay of these factors contribute to the persistence of symptoms after COVID-19.

RECoVERED, a prospective cohort study in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, enrolled participants aged⩾16 years after SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis. We used a structural network analysis to assess relationships between biomedical (initial COVID-19 severity, inflammation markers), psychological (illness perceptions, coping, resilience), and social factors (loneliness, negative life events) and persistent symptoms 24 months after initial disease (severe fatigue, difficulty concentrating, depressive symptoms and limitations in physical functioning). Causal discovery, an explorative data-driven approach testing all possible associations and retaining the most likely model, was performed.

Data from 235/303 participants (77.6%) who completed the month 24 study visit were analysed. The structural model revealed associations between the putative factors and outcomes. The outcomes clustered together with severe fatigue as its central point. Loneliness, fear avoidance in response to symptoms, and illness perceptions were directly linked to the outcomes. Biological (inflammatory markers) and clinical (severity of initial illness) variables were connected to the outcomes only via psychological or social variables.

Our findings support a model where biomedical, psychological, and social factors contribute to the development of long-term sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection.