The Cook Ice Cap (CIC) on the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands recently experienced extremely negative surface mass balance. Further deglaciation could have important impacts on endemic and invasive fauna and flora. To put this exceptional glacier evolution into a multi-centennial-scale context, we refined the evolution of the CIC over the last millennium, investigated the associated climate conditions and explored its potential evolution by 2100 ce. A glaciological model, constrained by cosmic ray exposure dating of moraines, historical documents and recent direct mass balance observations, was used to simulate the ice-cap extents during different phases of advance and retreat between the last millennium and 2100 ce. Cosmogenic dating suggests glacial advance around the early Little Ice Age (LIA), consistent with findings from other sub-Antarctic studies, and the rather cold and humid conditions brought about by the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). This study contributes to our currently limited understanding of palaeoclimate for the early LIA in the southern Indian Ocean. Glaciological modelling and observations confirm the recent decrease in CIC extent linked to the intensification of the SAM. Although affected by large uncertainties, future simulations suggest a complete disappearance of CIC by the end of the century.

Some lateral moraines contain a rich record of Holocene glacial expansion. Previous workers have used such evidence to document glacial fluctuations in western Canada, Alaska, and the U.S. Pacific Northwest, but similar studies in Patagonia are uncommon. Here we report on the late Holocene behavior of Stoppani Glacier, a 75 km2 glacier sourced in the Cordillera Darwin, southernmost Patagonia. Based on radiocarbon-dated wood and organic material contained in the glacier's northeast lateral moraine, we infer that Stoppani Glacier advanced shortly before 3.8–3.6, at 3.2–2.8, 2.3–2.1, and 0.3–0.2, and possibly sometime before 1.4–1.3 and 0.8–0.7 cal ka BP. These advances culminated at 0.3–0.2 cal ka BP, when the glacier constructed a prominent end moraine, marking its greatest extent of the past 4000 years. Although the timing of several of the advances overlap with the age range of glacial expansion recognized elsewhere in Patagonia, some do not. Asynchronous behavior observed in the glacial record may arise from the type of evidence (e.g., lateral stratigraphy vs. end moraine) used to document glacial fluctuations or variations in climate or glacial response times. A significant difference between the Stoppani record and some other Patagonian records is that the former indicates general expansion of ice over the last 4000 years, whereas the latter indicate a net decrease in extent over that period.