Age and period are the most widely used parameters for forecasting mortality rates. Empirical mortality rate differences in multiple populations often show strong geometric patterns on the two-dimensional age–period plane. The idea of this paper is to take these geometric patterns as the starting point for the development of forecasts. A parametric approach is presented and discussed which uses simple techniques from spatial statistics. The proposed model is statistically parsimonious and yields forecasts that are consistent with the historical data and coherent for multiple populations.

The maximum of a Gaussian random field was used by Worsley et al. (1992) to test for activation at an unknown point in positron emission tomography images of blood flow in the human brain. The Euler characteristic of excursion sets was used as an estimator of the number of regions of activation. The expected Euler characteristic of excursion sets of stationary Gaussian random fields has been derived by Adler and Hasofer (1976) and Adler (1981). In this paper we extend the results of Adler (1981) to χ2, F and t fields. The theory is applied to some three-dimensional images of cerebral blood flow from a study on pain perception.