We use biochemical, biological, archaeological, and historical analysis to examine relationships between Atlantic cod migration, sea temperature, and shifts in the distribution and occupancy of historical fishing sites in Iceland during the last millennium. Results support the hypothesis that the cooling climate of the North Atlantic during the period commonly referred to as the Little Ice Age coincided with changes in Atlantic cod migration patterns. Historical analysis shows a concomitant increase in reports of worsening Atlantic cod fishing and a severe decrease in domestic fishing, particularly in north Iceland. We conclude that Atlantic cod fisheries in Iceland originally thrived because of the proximity to cod migration routes. However, despite the mobility of local fishers, fluctuations in fish migrations, coupled with a harsher climate and increased competition for fishing grounds, resulted in a stagnation that lasted until the eventual modernization of the fishery in the mid-nineteenth century.

Large protected areas are often considered natural yet outside pressures may compromise ecological integrity. This paper points to a problem in assessing ecological baselines: what if species’ extirpations go undetected? I present a data set spanning 130 years that demonstrates the loss of white-tailed jack rabbits Lepus townsendii from two National Parks in the well studied 60,000 km2 Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA. While these extirpations have been unnoticed until now, an ecological consequence may be elevated predation on juvenile ungulates. A critical challenge we face is how to apply better the concept of shifting baselines to the restoration of functional relationships when species' losses are undetected.