In the UK, the number of patients urgently referred for suspected cancer is increasing, and providers are struggling to cope with demand. We explore the potential cost-effectiveness of a new risk prediction test – the PinPoint test – to triage and prioritize patients urgently referred with suspected urological cancers.

Two simulation models were developed to reflect the diagnostic pathways for patients with (i) suspected prostate cancer, and (ii) bladder or kidney cancer, comparing the PinPoint test to current practice. An early economic analysis was conducted from a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. The primary outcomes were the percentage of individuals seen within 2 weeks and health care costs. An exploratory analysis was conducted to understand the potential impact of the Pinpoint test on quality-adjusted life years gained.

Across both models and applications, the PinPoint test led to more individuals with urological cancer being seen within 2 weeks. Using PinPoint only to prioritize patients led to increased costs overall, whereas using PinPoint to both triage and prioritize patients led to cost savings. The estimated impact on life years gained/lost was very small and highly uncertain.

Using the PinPoint test to prioritize urgent referrals meant that more individuals with urological cancer were seen within 2 weeks, but at additional cost to the NHS. If used as a triage and prioritization tool, the PinPoint test shortens wait times for referred individuals and is cost saving. More data on the impact of short-term delays to diagnosis on health-related quality of life is needed.

This study estimates the maximum price at which mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) therapy is deemed cost-effective for septic shock patients and identifies parameters that are most important in making treatment decisions.

We developed a probabilistic Markov model according to the sepsis care trajectory to simulate costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of septic shock patients receiving either MSC therapy or usual care over their lifetime. We calculated the therapeutic headroom by multiplying the gains attributable to MSCs with willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold and derived the maximum reimbursable price (MRP) from the expected net monetary benefit and savings attributable to MSCs. We performed scenario analyses to assess the impact of changes to assumptions on the study findings. A value of information analysis is performed to identify parameters with greatest impact on the uncertainty around the cost-effectiveness of MSC therapy.

At a WTP threshold of $50,000 per QALY, the therapeutic headroom and MRP of MSC therapy were $20,941 and $16,748, respectively; these estimates increased with the larger WTP values and the greater impact of MSCs on in-hospital mortality and hospital discharge rates. The parameters with greatest information value were MSC's impact on in-hospital mortality and the baseline septic shock in-hospital mortality.

At a common WTP of $50,000/QALY, MSC therapy is deemed to be economically attractive if its unit cost does not exceed $16,748. This ceiling price can be increased to $101,450 if the therapy significantly reduces both in-hospital mortality and increases hospital discharge rates.