We study a flexible class of finite-disc process models with interaction between the discs. We let 𝒰 denote the random set given by the union of discs, and use for the disc process an exponential family density with the canonical sufficient statistic depending only on geometric properties of 𝒰 such as the area, perimeter, Euler-Poincaré characteristic, and the number of holes. This includes the quermass-interaction process and the continuum random-cluster model as special cases. Viewing our model as a connected component Markov point process, and thereby establishing local and spatial Markov properties, becomes useful for handling the problem of edge effects when only 𝒰 is observed within a bounded observation window. The power tessellation and its dual graph become major tools when establishing inclusion-exclusion formulae, formulae for computing geometric characteristics of 𝒰, and stability properties of the underlying disc process density. Algorithms for constructing the power tessellation of 𝒰 and for simulating the disc process are discussed, and the software is made public available.

The distribution theory for reward functions on semi-Markov processes has been of interest since the early 1960s. The relevant asymptotic distribution theory has been satisfactorily developed. On the other hand, it has been noticed that it is difficult to find exact distribution results which lead to the effective computation of such distributions. Note that there is no satisfactory exact distribution result for rewards accumulated over deterministic time intervals [0, t], even in the special case of continuous-time Markov chains. The present paper provides neat general results which lead to explicit closed-form expressions for the relevant Laplace transforms of general reward functions on semi-Markov and Markov additive processes.

We study exponential families within the class of counting processes and show that a mixed Poisson process belongs to an exponential family if and only if it is either a Poisson process or has a gamma structure distribution. This property can be expressed via exponential martingales.

A method is provided for numerical evaluation, with any given accuracy, of the probability that at least p% of the genetic material from an individual's chromosomal segment survives to the next generation. Relevant MAPLE® V codes, for automated implementation of such evaluation, are also provided. The genomic continuum model, with Haldane's model for the crossover process, is assumed.

We consider the problem of claims reserving and estimating run-off triangles. We generalize the gamma cell distributions model which leads to Tweedie's compound Poisson model. Choosing a suitable parametrization, we estimate the parameters of our model within the framework of generalized linear models (see Jørgensen-de Souza [2] and Smyth-Jørgensen [8]). We show that these methods lead to reasonable estimates of the outstanding loss liabilities.

General and unifying approaches are discussed for computing fundamental characteristics of both continuous-time and discrete-time birth-death processes. In particular, an exponential family framework is used to derive explicit expressions, in terms of continued fractions, for joint generating functions of first-passage times and a whole collection of associated random quantities, and a random sum representation is used to obtain formulae for means, variances and covariances of stopped reward functions defined on a birth-death process.

A unifying technology is introduced for finding explicit closed form expressions for joint moment generating functions of various random quantities associated with some waiting time problems. Sooner and later waiting times are covered for general discrete- and continuous-time models. The models are either Markov chains or semi-Markov processes with a finite number of states. Waiting times associated with generalized phase-type distributions, that are of interest in survival analysis and other areas, are also covered.

The dynamical aspects of single channel gating can be modelled by a Markov renewal process, with states aggregated into two classes corresponding to the receptor channel being open or closed, and with brief sojourns in either class not detected. This paper is concerned with the relation between the amount of time, for a given record, in which the channel appears to be open compared to the amount in which it is actually open and the difference in their proportions; this may be used to obtain information on the unobserved actual process from the observed one. Results, with extensions, on exponential families have been applied to obtain relevant generating functions and asymptotic normal distributions, including explicit forms for the parameters. Numerical results are given as illustration in special cases.

Burn-in is a procedure used for eliminating weak components in a mixed population. In this paper we focus on general mixed populations. Three types of results are established. First, it is shown that any mixed population displays a type of monotonicity property which is appropriate for burn-in. Second, it is shown that if, asymptotically, components have constant failure rates, then the mixed population will also asymptotically have a constant failure rate and this will correspond to the rate of the strongest subpopulation of the mixture. Finally, it is shown for a reasonable cost function, that if one mixture distribution dominates another in a strong sense, the resulting mixture of the dominant distribution will have larger optimal burn-in time.

A class of optimal stopping problems for the Wiener process is studied herein, and asymptotic expansions for the optimal stopping boundaries are derived. These results lead to a simple index-type class of asymptotically optimal solutions to the classical discounted multi-armed bandit problem: given a discount factor 0<β <1 and k populations with densities from an exponential family, how should x1, x2,… be sampled sequentially from these populations to maximize the expected value of Ʃ∞1 βi−1xi, in ignorance of the parameters of the densities?

For independent random variables X and Y, if the conditional distribution of X given X + Y satisfies certain conditions, then the joint distribution of X and Y is a member of a certain one-parameter exponential family. Extensions for n independent random variables are given. A characterization for independent random variables involving order statistics is also given.

By analogy with statistical mechanics random collision processes are considered. In two cases we derive their limiting distributions using discrimination information. In one case the limiting distribution is unique and in the other one the family of limiting distributions is an exponential family.