Mismatch negativity (MMN) amplitude is reduced in psychotic disorders and associated with symptoms and functioning. Due to these robust associations, it is often considered a biomarker for psychotic illness. The relationship between MMN and clinical outcomes has been examined well in early onset psychotic illness; however, its stability and predictive utility in chronic samples are not clear.

We examined the five-year stability of MMN amplitude over two timepoints in individuals with established psychotic disorders (cases; N = 132) and never-psychotic participants (NP; N = 170), as well as longitudinal associations with clinical symptoms and functioning.

MMN amplitude exhibited good temporal stability (cases, r = 0.53; never-psychotic, r = 0.52). In cases, structural equation models revealed MMN amplitude to be a significant predictor of worsening auditory hallucinations (β = 0.19), everyday functioning (β = −0.13), and illness severity (β = −0.12) at follow-up. Meanwhile, initial IQ (β = −0.24), negative symptoms (β = 0.23), and illness severity (β = −0.16) were significant predictors of worsening MMN amplitude five years later.

These results imply that MMN measures a neural deficit that is reasonably stable up to five years. Results support disordered cognition and negative symptoms as preceding reduced MMN, which then may operate as a mechanism driving reductions in everyday functioning and the worsening of auditory hallucinations in chronic psychotic disorders. This pattern may inform models of illness course, clarifying the relationships amongst biological mechanisms of predictive processing and clinical deficits in chronic psychosis and allowing us to better understand the mechanisms driving such impairments over time.