Forms of non-random copying error provide sources of inherited variation yet their effects on cultural evolutionary dynamics are poorly understood. Focusing on variation in granny and reef knot forms, we present a mathematical model that specifies how these variant frequencies are affected by non-linear interactions between copying fidelity, mirroring, handedness and repetition biases. Experiments on adult humans allowed these effects to be estimated using approximate Bayesian computation and the model is iterated to explain the prevalence of granny over reef knots in the wild. Our study system also serves to show conditions under which copying fidelity drives heterogeneity in cultural variants at equilibrium, and that interaction between unbiased forms of copying error can skew cultural variation.

In this paper we provide an introduction to statistical inference for the classical linear birth‒death process, focusing on computational aspects of the problem in the setting of discretely observed processes. The basic probabilistic properties are given in Section 2, focusing on computation of the transition functions. This is followed by a brief discussion of simulation methods in Section 3, and of frequentist methods in Section 4. Section 5 is devoted to Bayesian methods, from rejection sampling to Markov chain Monte Carlo and approximate Bayesian computation. In Section 6 we consider the time-inhomogeneous case. The paper ends with a brief discussion in Section 7.