Political personalization and institutional erosion in larger democracies

While the number and proportion of democratic regimes in the world has grown strongly in recent decades, scholars increasingly consider that the oldest democracies are in a state of crisis (Dalton Reference Dalton2004; Mair Reference Mair2013; Pharr and Putnam Reference Pharr and Putnam2000). In the first place, some academics point to rapidly decreasing levels of trust in democratic institutions such as parliaments, governments and political parties (Dalton Reference Dalton2004; Dogan Reference Dogan2005). As a potential manifestation of declining trust, citizens’ involvement and participation in politics has dropped concomitantly (Blais and Rubenson Reference Blais and Rubenson2013; Mair et al. Reference Mair, Van Biezen and Poguntke2012). Related to these trends, several scholars have highlighted how the linkages between voters and politicians have weakened, as voters increasingly withdraw into their private lives and political officeholders become progressively dependent on state structures and funding (Katz and Mair Reference Katz and Mair1995; Mair Reference Mair2013; Van Biezen Reference Van Biezen2004). Finally, more recently attention has shifted to the rise of populist parties and politicians in virtually all Western democracies, and their effects on institutionalized parties and party systems (Kriesi Reference Kriesi2014; Mudde Reference Mudde2007). According to many scholars, the rise of such movements reflects a broader trend towards the personalization or presidentialization of politics, as a part of which the personal characteristics of politicians are becoming ever more important than party platforms, ideological orientations or substantive policy proposals (McAllister Reference McAllister2007; Poguntke and Webb Reference Poguntke and Webb2005).

Combined, all of these trends can be seen as representing a shift away from stable and predictable (i.e. institutionalized) political dynamics towards a more ad hoc, informal and unstable political environment. In response, there has been increasing scholarly attention for so-called informal institutions, which according to Gretchen Helmke and Steven Levitsky (Reference Helmke and Levitsky2004: 727) can be defined as ‘socially shared rules, usually unwritten, that are created, communicated, and enforced outside of officially sanctioned channels’. Informal institutions can assume an accommodative, complementary, substitutive or conflicting role vis-à-vis formal institutional frameworks, and which role they play depends on their mutual congruence as well as their relative powers (Lauth Reference Lauth2000). If informal and formal institutions are conflicting, and formal institutions are weak or superficial, the legitimacy of these structures will decline and the risk of political instability and conflicts can be expected to grow. In their analysis of variation in the strength and enforcement of political institutions, Steven Levitsky and María Victoria Murillo (Reference Levitsky and Murillo2009) underscore that the behaviour of political actors will diverge from the formal institutional rules if they expect that these rules will not be enforced, thereby increasing political instability and unpredictability. While most publications on informal politics focus on new democracies, contemporary trends in advanced democracies have also been explained as a shift from formal to more informal types of politics.

The most common manifestation of informal politics are patron–client relationships, which can be observed around the world, and in many political systems function as the key linkage mechanism between citizens and politicians (Hicken Reference Hicken2011; Kitschelt Reference Kitschelt2000; Kitschelt and Wilkinson Reference Kitschelt and Wilkinson2007; Piattoni Reference Piattoni2001) Although the relationship between democracy and clientelism remains a topic of debate, most scholars would agree that patron–client linkages undermine the quality of democracy because they produce an imbalanced allocation of state resources to citizens, and because they enhance and perpetuate the socioeconomic dependence of citizens on politicians and the state (Stokes Reference Stokes2005).Footnote ⁴ In similar fashion, the relationship between clientelism and political stability remains ambiguous, but the iterative nature of patron–client interactions has repeatedly been linked to higher levels of regime stability (Arriola Reference Arriola2009; cf. Scott Reference Scott1972: 100). However, clientelism is notoriously hard to study empirically (Hicken Reference Hicken2011: 194), and so far no systematic comparative analyses of clientelism in small states have been conducted. In this light, findings and observations coming out of the case study literature on individual small states offer the most promising source of information about patron–client networks in these cases.

Informality and personalized politics in small states

With only a handful of exceptions, the world’s 46 small states with fewer than 1.5 million inhabitants all maintain a democratic political system (Anckar Reference Anckar2010; Diamond and Tsalik Reference Diamond and Tsalik1999; Srebrnik Reference Srebrnik2004). Many of these small states – especially those in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific – actually form part of Samuel Huntington’s ‘Third Wave’, but are rarely identified as such because most comparative studies exclude them on the basis of their diminutive size (Veenendaal and Corbett Reference Veenendaal and Corbett2014). In contrast to many larger Third Wave cases, however, virtually all newly democratizing small states have retained their democratic institutions; Fiji is the only one that has reverted to a semi-authoritarian regime. Most other small states have adopted (or even carbon-copied) the formal political institutions of their former colonial and metropolitan powers, producing a strong inclination towards ‘institutional fidelity’ (Sutton Reference Sutton2007). As a result, when looking at their formal political structures, it can be concluded that small states tend to have both remarkably democratic and remarkably stable political systems.

But this is only one side of the story. The case study literature on small (island) states in Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Europe and the Pacific demonstrates that small states – by virtue of their diminutive size – tend to have very informal and personalized politics (Larmour Reference Larmour1994; Peters Reference Peters1992; Seibert Reference Seibert1999; Veenendaal Reference Veenendaal2014). In small societies, ‘everybody knows everybody’ (Corbett Reference Corbett2015): citizens and politicians are likely to maintain personal relations and to engage with each other in multiple societal roles and settings (Ott Reference Ott2000). In the political domain, the overlap between professional and private roles entails that political relations are personalized, while personal relations at the societal level tend to be politicized. As a consequence of this blurred boundary between private and professional spheres, informal and personal networks have a strong effect on politics and political decision-making (Farrugia Reference Farrugia1993). In small states, politicians are elected because of who they are rather than what they stand for, resulting in a virtual absence of ideological divisions, programmatic forms of contestation or informed debates about policy proposals. The upshot of the prevalence of informal and personalized politics is that formal institutions cannot play an autonomous role in the political system, undermining their functioning and legitimacy (Veenendaal Reference Veenendaal2014).

The tendency towards personal instead of ideological or programmatic forms of contestation in smaller communities has also been observed in quantitative studies, especially those focusing on local government (Dahl and Tufte Reference Dahl and Tufte1973; Oliver et al. Reference Oliver, Ha and Callen2012; Oppenheimer Reference Oppenheimer1996). In their impressive study of the characteristics of local government in the US, J. Eric Oliver and his coauthors (2012: ch. 4) find that instead of the ideology-driven and partisan nature of national US politics, governance in small municipalities focuses on the personal connections between citizens and public officials. These authors also corroborate Robert Dahl and Edward Tufte’s finding (1973: 65, 87–88) that personal connections between voters and politicians contribute to higher levels of political participation, a conclusion that is also drawn by a recent study of local government in European countries (Denters et al. Reference Denters, Goldsmith, Ladner, Mouritzen and Rose2014). Viewed from this perspective, informal and personalized politics can indeed be supposed to stimulate democratic development.

On the level of nation states, the survival of formally democratic institutions in small countries certainly appears to bolster the conjecture that profound informality and social intimacy contribute, or in any case do not obstruct, democratic governance in these cases. Various scholars have claimed that the increased proximity, face-to-face relations and direct contacts between citizens and politicians are, in fact, the root cause of democratic governance in small states (Anckar Reference Anckar2002, Reference Anckar2010; Diamond and Tsalik Reference Diamond and Tsalik1999; Srebrnik Reference Srebrnik2004). In other words, this would mean that the prevalent informal dynamics in small states accommodate or even strengthen the performance of formal democratic institutions. Again, however, the case study literature tends to point to a different conclusion. In many small states, personalized politics result primarily in extreme political polarization, excessive executive dominance and ubiquitous patron–client networks (Baldacchino Reference Baldacchino2012; Erk and Veenendaal Reference Erk and Veenendaal2014). Some scholars even go so far as to suggest that democratic political institutions function as a façade, beyond which a much more illiberal political culture can be detected (Peters Reference Peters1992). According to this perspective, the survival of formal democracy in small states may be a product of factors other than small size, such as colonial history or international politics (Masala Reference Masala2004; Veenendaal Reference Veenendaal2015).

Regardless of the influence of informal politics on the quality of democracy, however, political systems of small states are remarkably stable through time. This is not only evidenced by the fact that their institutional structures are rarely changed or reformed, but also by the virtual absence of major social and political crises, political violence or state failure in small states (Congdon Fors Reference Congdon Fors2014; Raleigh and Hegre Reference Raleigh and Hegre2009). Even the poorest small states, such as São Tomé and Príncipe in Africa, and the most culturally fragmented ones, such as Vanuatu in the Pacific, tend to maintain stable political regimes. It apparently follows that the informal and personalized political dynamics in these countries somehow produce high levels of regime stability. After a brief presentation of some descriptive statistics coming out of the systematic literature review, in the analytical sections of this article the specific characteristics and effects of informality and personalization in small states will be discussed on the basis of the findings of these case study publications. This analysis will be split in two sections. The first section discusses the features of elite relations in small states, while the second analytical section zooms in on the nature of the relationship between politicians and voters. In both sections, quotes from publications analysed as part of the systematic literature review are presented to illustrate or underscore the analytical narrative.

The systematic literature review: some descriptive statistics

In Table 2, an overview has been provided of all publications included in the systematic literature review. The table lists the number of publications included for each individual small state, and in subsequent columns indicates how many of these publications make reference to personalistic, non-ideological politics as well as patron–client linkages. Based on these scores, the last column indicates to what extent the publications included for each case confirm the general patterns highlighted in this article, indicating which percentage of publications refer to personalistic and/or clientelistic politics. The bottom row of the table reveals that both personalism and clientelism were highlighted in a majority of the publications included, but that personalism was much more commonly observed than patron–client linkages. On average, however, personalism and clientelism were discussed in over 68% of the total source material, confirming that these are indeed perceived or reported as prevalent and widespread political dynamics in small states.

Table 2 Overview of Publications Included in the Systematic Literature Review

However, the table also points to some interesting discrepancies between individual cases. In the first place, the figures show that in some small states personalism and clientelism were observed in only half of all publications included, and that in two small states (Estonia and Iceland, both highlighted in italics), a minority of publications made reference to these patterns, indicating that these are potentially outlier cases. Second, the table reveals that the publications on some small states made much more reference to personalism than clientelism (e.g. Bhutan and the Maldives), while the opposite pattern can be observed for other cases (e.g. Cyprus and Malta). The total number of publications included for each case is so small, however, that no firm conclusions should be drawn on this basis. Furthermore, it should be kept in mind that individual case study publications have different foci, meaning that some of them might not discuss political features (such as personalism or clientelism) that in fact can be or have been observed in the small state under investigation. Obviously, the perspective of each author is different, and figures in the table might very well shift if more publications were included in the sample.

Analysis: elite relations in small states

With the exception of several microstates in the Pacific, political competition in small states tends to revolve around political parties. However, virtually all case study publications reveal that these parties have very weak ideologies and political platforms. In practice, therefore, the substantive differences between political parties tend to be extremely limited. In the Caribbean small state of Dominica, for example: ‘There are no significant ideological or ethnic cleavages among the existing parties, of which there are currently four … None of the parties espouse a clear national economic, political and social ideology … None of the parties appear seized of a role larger than competing with each other for efficient management of the state apparatus’ (Babb Reference Babb2005: 2).

Instead of ideologies or substantive policies, political parties in small states primarily focus on their respective political leaders, and in many cases parties are basically established and preserved by individual politicians as vehicles to pursue their political ambitions. In such contexts, party labels and organizations obscure the fact that competition is essentially personality-driven in nature. In the African island nation of Comoros, for example: ‘Political parties themselves are inherently weak. Though they have a national ambition, they tend to be entrenched in the native region of the party leader and are rarely active outside of the election period. Financially they are largely funded by the party leader and his network of friends’ (Baker Reference Baker2009: 226). In the European microstate of Monaco, political groupings play a comparable role: ‘The political movements, although existing and active, have nothing in common with party organizations in neighboring countries, where an organized structure, a government program, and the conquest of power are objectives’ (Grinda Reference Grinda2007: 72).

Remarkably, the case study material on small states reveals that personalization either translates into political fragmentation or power concentration, with little middle ground between these extremes. In many small states, the personalized nature of competition produces continuous conflicts and rivalries between individual politicians. Within political parties, power struggles between political leaders often result in split-offs and the formation of new political groupings. In Cape Verde: ‘Personality conflicts spawn the emergence of new parties. Power struggles within the MpD [Movimento para a Democracia] produced breakaway factions and spin-off parties. The PAICV [Partido Africano da Independência de Cabo Verde] remained more coherent but saw internal tensions rise between the old guard from the days of the liberation struggle and younger party officials’ (Meyns Reference Meyns2002: 160–161).

The personalization of politics therefore frequently translates into a seemingly unstable political environment where the electoral fortunes of parties are closely bound to the fate of their respective leaders. In the small South American country of Suriname:

Political fragmentation as a result of personal conflicts and rivalries between politicians is, however, most apparent in the Pacific, where party organizations are weak or non-existent. In those countries that do have political parties, the absence of substantive politics produces constantly shifting alliances, as in the Solomon Islands:

In those Pacific states in which parties are lacking altogether, the situation is essentially similar. In Nauru, the world’s smallest state, recurrent dynamics have been: ‘The personalization of politics … the absence of political parties that advanced any real economic and social agendas, weak politicians, and the need for leaders to weld together complex coalitions of individuals. Such coalitions often fragmented as personal loyalties changed and elections produced new politicians’ (Connell Reference Connell2006: 57). As this quote suggests, personalization affects both intra- and inter-party relationships. While the significance of personal relationships limits the stability and internal cohesion of parties, it also affects the stability of government coalitions and political alliances. In Tuvalu, for instance, where political parties also do not exist: ‘Personal connections, including those from school and work, as well as longstanding disputes and rivalries, influence how coalitions rise and fall, as does the allocation of ministerial portfolios’ (Corbett and Fraenkel Reference Corbett and Fraenkel2016: 356).

But also in countries that do have political parties, personal relationships have a profound influence on the emergence and durability of political alliances. In the Caribbean island nation of Grenada, for example: ‘Electoral politics … has been characterized by marriages of convenience, party fragmentation and reconfiguration, the criss-crossing of political elites among parties, the emergence of a multi-party system, declining voter turnout, absence of a parliamentary opposition, bridging of ideological divides and most recently the re-alignment to a two-party system in 2003’ (Grenade Reference Grenade2004: 14).

Yet while personalization in most cases translates into fragmentation and instability, there are also myriad examples of situations in which it leads to power concentration in the hands of single political leaders. In many small states, political leaders have remarkably long terms in office, especially when they are not bound by term limits. If political leaders succeed in warding off potential rivals, establishing dominance within their political parties and securing recurrent re-election into government, they can easily come to dominate the entire political arena. Examples of such dominating political leaders in small states abound, from Dom Mintoff in Malta to Walter Lini in Vanuatu, and from France-Albert René in the Seychelles to Vere Bird in Antigua and Barbuda. A case in point is provided by the rule of Lynden Pindling in the Bahamas, where: ‘The achievement of independence in 1973 was the strongest and most monumental achievement under the Pindling government. The historical legacy of this moment gave the political party much longevity, as a result of which Pindling and the party were constantly reelected until 1992’ (Lee Reference Lee2012: 66).

Whereas political fragmentation could pose problems for stability, power concentration can bring negative repercussions for democratic governance. The absence of ideological challengers and the prevalence of patron–client networks (to be discussed in the following section) create strong incumbency effects, and the leadership styles of many powerful small state leaders becomes more authoritarian as their time in office endures. A case in point is Samoa in the Pacific, where politics is dominated by the Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) and its leaders: ‘If the stability gained over the past 25 years indicated anything, it is that HRPP rule can have positive implications for Samoa. However, this should be attended by a warning: the price of stability may be greater government control of Samoan society’ (Iati Reference Iati2013: 463).

In sum, therefore, the takeaway is that irrespective of the presence or absence of political parties, and regardless of whether power is concentrated or dispersed, elite relations and political competition in small states tend to be intensely personalized. As the literature on personalistic politics suggests, in many cases personalization results in political instability, characterized by constant split-offs, rapidly shifting political alliances and frequent changes of government. The important point, however, is that this instability rarely threatens the survival of democratic regimes. An illustrious example of this state of affairs is provided by the African small state of São Tomé and Príncipe, where: ‘Programmatic issues hardly played a role in the continuing power struggles, except with regard to constitutional matters, and these in turn have primarily had to do with supremacy in the power struggle … The political instability has not threatened the system, however, since politicians share a basic consensus that it serves their interests’ (Seibert Reference Seibert1999: 243).

Indeed, a key feature of personalized politics in small states is that the permanently fluctuating nature of political alliances also ensures frequent alternation in office. As a result, while inherently unstable, this personalized system also ensures that every member of the political elite can – at least in theory – become part of the ruling coalition, and thereby enjoy the spoils of government. And even in small states that are ruled by dominant leaders for protracted periods of time, elections will eventually bring another party and political elite to power.

Analysis: relations between voters and politicians in small states

One of the key benefits of small societies highlighted in the literature is that the limited dimensions facilitate direct communication between politicians and citizens, supposedly enhancing the quality of representation. The case study literature confirms that citizens of small states and their political representatives have constant face-to-face contact, but it refutes the notion that this strengthens representation (Veenendaal Reference Veenendaal2013). If anything, publications on small states highlight that citizens tend to be rather passive and submissive vis-à-vis political elites, as in Guyana: ‘The two main parties in Guyana have always acted independently of their followers. Guyanese (even those who are formal members of parties) concede most of the political decision-making space to their political leaders’ (Lowe Reference Lowe2013: 373).

According to many sources, the primary reason for this quite obedient attitude towards politics among voters is that many of them are socially and economically dependent on their political leaders. As a result of the limited population size and stronger social connections in small states, politicians generally know which individuals support them and which ones support their opponents, meaning that political anonymity is lacking. Once elected into office, politicians therefore also know which citizens they can reward for their support, and which ones they can ignore or even punish. In the Middle American small state of Belize, therefore: ‘What to outsiders appears as a politically interested electorate firmly endowed with democratic norms, under a closer cultural explanation turns out to be a population held in the grip of political parties, suspended permanently in a state of dependency’ (Nowottny Reference Nowottny2007: 11).

While patron–client linkages can be found in political systems around the world, the case study material shows that direct and personal contacts and the absence of programmatic politics create a strong tendency towards clientelistic networks in small states. In other words: ‘Montenegro’s size allows incumbents to rather easily establish and maintain clientelistic networks’ (Vukovic Reference Vukovic2015: 79). Whereas the higher access to politicians theoretically enables voters to question their representatives and voice their demands on substantive issues, in practice this contact is primarily used to ask for political favours. This is, for example, traditionally the case in Iceland, where: ‘Modern parties emerged … during the interbellum as class parties with a strong clientelist orientation. Access to clientelist resources was to a considerable extent controlled by the parties but individual MPs played a key role with the clientele on a face-to-face basis’ (Indridason and Kristinsson Reference Indridason and Kristinsson2015: 566).

The closeness between citizens and politicians not only enhances the accessibility of politicians; it also enables politicians to have a much greater influence on the private lives of citizens. In turn, this means that societies of many small states are remarkably politicized, in the sense that political affiliations strongly determine social interactions in the private sphere. An example is provided by Malta, where: ‘Amongst themselves, the Maltese develop an intricate knowledge of the partisan affiliations and loyalties of friends, family, and acquaintances, effectively mapping a network of potential influence, patronage, and obligation’ (Baldacchino Reference Baldacchino2002: 198).

Since government controls most jobs and is often the only professionally organized institution, politicians in power can exert political control over supposedly impartial institutions like the media, the judiciary and the private sector. In the African small state of Djibouti, for example, ‘In everyday life, patron–client relations structure social interaction. Citizens – from prostitutes to business investors – require patronage and hence the protection of those who are at the top of the citizenship ladder. Business cannot operate smoothly unless it is protected by a patron’ (Bezabeh Reference Bezabeh2011: 600).

In this context in which there is no political anonymity, ideological demarcations are absent, and patron–client linkages are ubiquitous, elections habitually translate into an intergroup struggle for access to state resources and jobs. Being the largest employer, the state is regarded as the greatest prize to be won, and because politics and the state are omnipresent in society, it matters a great deal to individual voters which parties and politicians are in power. In Suriname,

And because election results can be of crucial importance to the well-being of individual citizens, many small states are remarkably polarized. In most small states, political divisions are mirrored in society, and political affiliations have a strong impact on private relations between individual citizens. Douglas Midgett accurately makes this point for the Caribbean small state of St Lucia:

While many scholars have assumed that the absence of ideological divisions should make small societies more consensual, in fact the opposite is true. Case study publications on small states around the world speak of ‘tribal’ politics, and in many countries there seems to be little room for independent or impartial institutions and voices. The paradox, of course, is that this competition has no substantive foundation and is exclusively focused on control of the state apparatus. As Kirk Meighoo points out for the case of Trinidad and Tobago:

While particularistic forms of representation are not necessarily less democratic than substantive ones (Kitschelt Reference Kitschelt2000), the pervasiveness of patron–client linkages in small states does create economic inefficiency, an oversized and ineffective public service, and the unequal treatment of societal groups by the state. In addition, it can augment the tendency to concentrate power because citizens are economically and socially dependent on their political leaders. In Vanuatu in the South Pacific, there is: ‘an emphasis on personality over policy, a tendency toward consensus and bloc voting, a desire for short-term gain over long-term commitment to a vision for the nation, and the use of patronage and exploitation of kinship by “big men” in their quest for support’ (Rousseau Reference Rousseau2012: 102).

Yet despite all the well-known limitations of clientelism and patronage, a key and underestimated benefit of these linkages is the political stability they provide (Arriola Reference Arriola2009). Clientelistic exchanges mean that citizens can enjoy some of the spoils of government, and in poorer small states that have no social security, clientelistic goods provide for a crucial measure of economic redistribution and welfare. Because of their dependence on state resources and services, citizens are highly unlikely to challenge the political elite as long as they are assured of a steady income by means of clientelistic exchanges. The virtual absence of programmatic politics furthermore entails that there are also no ideological movements or initiatives to change or overthrow the political regime, which also contributes to political stability. Even in small states with high measures of ethnic, linguistic or religious fragmentation, patron–client linkages provide a strong measure of political stability, and culturally plural small states also do not appear to be less stable or democratic than homogeneous ones (Corbett and Veenendaal Reference Corbett and Veenendaal2018).

In sum, therefore, informality and face-to-face relations between citizens and elites can be said to contribute to regime stability. While clientelism creates tribalistic and profoundly polarized societies in some small states (e.g. Malta, the Seychelles or the Caribbean islands), this polarization rarely translates into regime crises or outright violence. The preservation of free and fair elections ensures that the opposition and its supporters always have a chance to gain office and access to state resources.