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Interpretation of ecological data

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 January 2018

Daniel Vincent Riordan
Affiliation:
West Cork Mental Health Services, Ireland, and Centre for Rural Health Research and Policy, Inverness, UK. Email: [email protected]
Cameron Stark
Affiliation:
Centre for Rural Health Research and Policy, Inverness, UK
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Abstract

Type
Columns
Copyright
Copyright © Royal College of Psychiatrists, 2010 

We read the debate on antidepressants and suicide Reference Isacsson, Rich, Jureidini and Raven1 with interest, especially the issue concerning the importance of controlling for possible confounding variables in ecological studies and the associated difficulties in drawing conclusions from such ecological observations.

One potentially important confounder, which has been overlooked, is the size of the family of origin. Birth cohort studies from Scotland Reference Riordan, Selvaraj, Stark and Gilbert2 and Norway Reference Gravseth, Mehlum, Bjerkedal and Kristensen3 suggest that having elder siblings may be linked with an increased risk of suicide. As the total fertility rates (a reasonable proxy for average family size) fell across most Western countries between the 1950s and 1970s, 4 it is plausible that some of the decline in suicide rates observed from the late 1980s onwards may be, in part at least, a resultant cohort effect.

Footnotes

Edited by Kiriakos Xenitidis and Colin Campbell

References

1 Isacsson, G, Rich, CL/Jureidini, J, Raven, M. The increased use of antidepressants has contributed to the worldwide reduction in suicide rates (debate). Br J Psychiatry 2010; 196; 429–33.Google Scholar
2 Riordan, DV, Selvaraj, S, Stark, C, Gilbert, JSE. Perinatal circumstances and risk of offspring suicide. Birth cohort study. Br J Psychiatry 2006; 189: 502–7.Google Scholar
3 Gravseth, HM, Mehlum, L, Bjerkedal, T, Kristensen, P. Suicide in young Norwegians in a life course perspective: population based cohort study. J Epidemiol Community Health 2010; 64: 407–12.Google Scholar
4 Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database. United Nations, 2009 (http://esa.un.org/unpp).Google Scholar
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