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¹¹ Viner, Jacob, International Economics (Glencoe, Ill.: Free Press, 1951)Google Scholar; see also Pahre, Robert, Politics and Trade Cooperation in the Nineteenth Century: The Agreeable Customs of 1815-1913 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), 293Google Scholar.

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¹⁷ O'Rourke, Kevin H. and Williamson, Jeffrey G., Globalization and History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999), 38Google Scholar. Even Robert Pahre's (fn. 11) more critical account that emphasizes earlier episodes of cooperation does recognize that the 1860 treaty did “spur [cooperation] in the 1860s” (p. 321).

¹⁸ Irwin (fn. 16).

¹⁹ Ibid., 97.

²⁰ Lazer, David, “The Free Trade Epidemic of the 1860s and Other Outbreaks of Economic Discrimination,” World Politics 51 (July 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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²⁷ Rose argues that trade between members of the GATT/WTO is not significantly higher, other things being equal, than trade between nonmembers or between members and nonmembers; Rose, Andrew K., “Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?” American Economic Review 94, no. 1 (2004)Google Scholar. Goldstein, Rivers, and Tomz distinguish between “formal members” of GATT/WTO, “nonmember participants,” and “nonparticipants” and find that the GATT/WTO promoted trade for both formal members and nonmember participants; Goldstein, Judith L., Rivers, Douglas, and Tomz, Michael, “Institutions in International Relations: Understanding the Effects of the GATT and the WTO on World Trade,” International Organization 61, no. 1 (2007)Google Scholar; “Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade? Comment,” American Economic Review 97, no. 5 (2007)Google Scholar. Subramanian and Wei show that the GATT/WTO had little effect on the imports of developing countries but that it strongly promoted imports of developed countries; Subramanian, Arvind and Wei, Shang-Jin, “The WTO Promotes Trade Strongly but Unevenly,” Journal of International Economics 72, no. 1 (2007)Google Scholar. Gowa and Kim argue that GATT had a large, positive, and significant impact on trade but only between five member states. They also report evidence that interwar trade blocs survived within the GATT era. They relate these findings to specific features of the GATT bargaining protocol; Gowa, Joanne S. and Kim, Soo Y., “An Exclusive Country Club: The Effects of the GATT on Trade, 1950-1994,” World Politics 57 (July 2005)Google Scholar. Finally, Felbermayr and Kohler and Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein find that the GATT/WTO contributed to the formation of new bilateral trading relationships. See Gabriel Felbermayr and Wilhelm Kohler, “Does WTO Membership Make a Difference at the Extensive Margin of World Trade?” CESifo Working Paper, no. 1898 (Munich: CESifo, 2007); and Elhanan Helpman, Marc Melitz, and Yona Rubin-stein, “Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes,” NBER Working Paper, no. 12927 (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2007).

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³⁷ Nye, John V., “The Myth of Free Trade Britain and Fortress France: Tariffs and Trade in the Nineteenth Century,” Journal of Economic History 51, no. 1 (1991)Google Scholar; idem, “Reply to Irwin on Free Trade,” Journal of Economic History 53, no. 1 (1993)Google Scholar; idem, War, Wines and Taxes (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2006)Google Scholar.

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³⁹ For more details on this, see Pahre's extensive Trade Agreements Database (TAD) (fn. 11).

⁴⁰ Bairoch (fn. 38,1976).

⁴¹ Ibid., 65.

⁴² Ibid., 67. “Of course, the liberalization policy adopted by the United Kingdom was a key factor for this strong acceleration of trade. And it was especially so because, as we have seen, following Britain's success (British trade doubled between 1846 and 1856), almost all European nations, after France, liberalized their custom policy after 1860.”

⁴³ Bairoch gives a list of European trading powers circa 1860 (in descending order): United Kingdom, France, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Russia, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland, Spain, Sweden. He excludes Holland because of “uncertainty in trade statistics,” adding that in 1860 it would have occupied the ninth or tenth place; Bairoch, “European Foreign Trade in the XlXth Century: The Development of the Value and Volume of Exports (Preliminary Results),” Journal of European Economic History 2, no. 1 (1973), 3. Note also that Bairoch's definition of “Germany” is unclear. Since systematic annual aggregate data for “Germany” are not available, we have excluded them from the sample in this section (although data for bilateral trade flows relating to Bremen, Hamburg, Liibeck, and Zollverein are included in the background data set for the regressions in Section IV). Our index thus covers nine of the ten major European trading nations of the time, plus the United States.

⁴⁴ Notable attempts for individual countries include McCloskey and Irwin: McCloskey, Deirdre N., “Magnanimous Albion: Free Trade and British National Income, 1841-1881,” Explorations in Economic History 17, no. 3 (1980)Google Scholar; Irwin, Douglas A., “New Estimates of the Average Tariff of the United States, 1790-1820,” Journal of Economic History 63, no. 2 (2003)Google Scholar; and idem, “Tariff Incidence in America's Gilded Age,” Journal of Economic History 67, no. 3 (2007)Google Scholar. In comparison with 1860s, the 1840s had earlier attracted greater interest. Other discussions and measurement of trade liberalization in the 1840s include Irwin, Douglas A., “Welfare Effects of British Free Trade: Debate and Evidence from the 1840's,” Journal of Political Economy 96, no. 6 (1988)Google Scholar; idem, “Political Economy and Peel Repeal of the Corn Laws,” Economics andPolitics 1, no. 1 (1989)Google Scholar; and Williamson, Jeffrey G., “The Impact of the Corn Laws Just Prior to Repeal,” Explorations in Economic History 27, no. 2 (1990)Google Scholar.

⁴⁵ Nye (fn. 37,1991).

⁴⁶ Irwin, Douglas A., “Free Trade and Protection in Nineteenth Century Britain and France Revisited: A Comment on Nye,” Journal of Economic History 53, no. 1 (1993)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁴⁷ Incidentally, Figure 3 also shows that the conventional opposition between Britain and France, as Nye had argued, is inexact. A more relevant one would be between “laissez-faire” Holland, Switzerland, or Belgium and “fortresses” U.S., Spain, or Russia. In between the two, France, Italy, or Britain are not dissimilar.

⁴⁸ Levasseur, Emile, Histoire du commerce de la France, Deuxième partie: De 1789 à nos jours [History of France's Foreign Trade, Second Part: 1789 to Present Times] (Paris: A. Rousseau, 1912)Google Scholar.

⁴⁹ Table 3 ignores some navigation treaties with Latin American nations and a few European ones as well. See note to Table 3.

⁵⁰ To our knowledge, the only other pre-1870 bilateral trade database is the one used in Flandreau; Flandreau, Marc, “The Economics and Politics of Monetary Unions: A Reassessment of the Latin Monetary Union, 1865-1871,” Financial History Review 7, no. 1 (2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Its size is more limited, however, and it relies mostly on data from Brian R. Mitchell, completed by some information from Swiss and Belgian trade returns.

⁵¹ By 1865, 44.5 percent of the treaties had been signed.

⁵² Irwin provides an exploration of the incidence of Federation on Australian trade in 1901. He finds little change in intra-Australian trade patterns in the period immediately following the formation of the Federation; Irwin, Douglas A., “The Impact of Federation on Australia's Trade Flows,” Economic Record 82, no. 258 (2006)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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⁵⁷ Cheng and Wall (fn. 55) note that “the literature has not tended to find a consistent sign” for the coefficient of population in the gravity equation (p. 8).

⁵⁸ E.g., Invin (fn. 16).

⁵⁹ It is not clear how this can be reconciled with the view that Britain was “laissez-faire.” If it was so, how could its concessions be more generous? And if Britain extended its concessions to France, why did it sign four MFN treaties (with Zollverein, Austria-Hungary, Italy, and Belgium) in the following years?

⁶⁰ Bairoch (fn. 38,1976); Irwin (fn. 16); O'Rourke and Williamson (fn. 17).

⁶¹ Irwin (fn. 16).

⁶² To be completely fair, Bairoch (fn. 38) and Lewis (fn. 38) do provide some partial aggregate numbers. As suggested, the evidence from these numbers did not quite square with the conventional view. That the conventional view failed to acknowledge the irrelevance of the 1860s in view of existing numbers only makes its enduring success more puzzling.

⁶³ Irwin (fn. 16).

⁶⁴ As The Economist reminded its readers a few weeks after the Cobden-Chevalier Treaty was signed: “We [meaning England] cannot truthfully say to them [meaning France], 'If you will take our production free of duty, we will injure ourselves by taking yours free of duty,' because we believe that, by so taking those commodities, we shall not be injuring, but benefiting ourselves”; Economist, January 28, 1860.

⁶⁵ Johnson (fn. 8).

⁶⁶ Pahre (fn. 11).

⁶⁷ Ibid., 284.

⁶⁸ Ibid., 301–4, for a test of the assumption that MFN treaties reduce cooperative activity as measured by the number of treaties in effect for each country. As Pahre concludes: “the figures suggest that MFN clause inhibits treaty formation” (p. 305).

⁶⁹ Kindleberger (fn. 24).

⁷⁰ Bairoch (fn. 38,1976); Irwin (fn. 16).

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