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Recent Mortality Trends: Some International Comparisons

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 October 2014

P. Giles  and
A. D. Wilkie
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Synopsis

This paper continues the work presented by Gwilt to the Centenary gathering of the Faculty in 1956 and extended by Anderson & Whitehead at the Sixteenth International Congress of Actuaries in 1960. For twenty-two countries death rates for each sex are given for quinquennial age groups between 15 and 84. Five periods centred on equidistant points in the interval 1950 to 1970 have been employed to permit ratios to be tabulated showing the improvement or worsening in mortality in each age group for any part of this period of twenty years. At some ages mortality has clearly worsened over the period, especially for males between 60 and 75.

A graphical method of examining the trend of mortality at each age over the last 150 years is illustrated; this is based on a model system of calendar year life tables.

A comparison with some assured lives mortality shows a greater improvement among assured lives than for the male population as a whole. Comparison of each country with the average for all countries and comparisons of mortality sex ratios bring out some points of interest which confirm the general trend.

An analysis by age, sex and cause of death covers all twenty-two countries in or around 1965, and four of them in 1955 in order to continue the figures given by Gwilt for 1936 and 1950. This analysis picks out the major reasons for the changes in over-all mortality and highlights the differences between sexes by giving ratios for each sub-group. The increases in certain countries in mortality from lung cancer, heart disease and motor vehicle accidents are noted.

The paper finishes by considering the effect of worsening mortality rates on endowment assurance premium rates.

Type
Research Article
Information
Transactions of the Faculty of Actuaries , Volume 33 , 1971 , pp. 375 - 514
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1971

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