Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-v9fdk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-05T05:02:43.350Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Arab Spring: Why the Surprising Similarities with the Revolutionary Wave of 1848?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 December 2012

Kurt Weyland*
Affiliation:
University of Texas at Austin

Abstract

Prominent scholars have highlighted important similarities between the Arab Spring of 2011 and the “revolutions” of 1848: Both waves of contention swept with dramatic speed across whole regions, but ended up yielding rather limited advances toward political liberalism and democracy. I seek to uncover the causal mechanisms that help account for these striking parallels. Drawing on my recent analysis of 1848, I argue that contention spread so quickly because many people in a wide range of countries drew rash inferences from the downfall of Tunisia's dictator. Applying cognitive heuristics that psychologists have documented, they overrated the significance of the Tunisian success, overestimated the similarities with the political situation in their own country, and jumped to the conclusion that they could successfully challenge their own autocrats. This precipitation prompted protests in many settings that actually were much less propitious; therefore problems abounded. Cognitive shortcuts held such sway because Arab societies were weakly organized and repressed and thus lacked leaders from whom common people could take authoritative cues. The decision whether to engage in emulative contention fell to ordinary citizens, who—due to limited information access and scarce experience—were especially susceptible to the simple inferences suggested by cognitive heuristics.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abdelmoumni, Fouad. 2011. “Nous sommes tous des Tunisiens!” Tel Quel (January 22–28): 24–25.Google Scholar
Aday, Sean, Farrell, Henry, Lynch, Marc, Sides, John, and Freelon, Deen. 2012. New Media and Conflict after the Arab Spring. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace.Google Scholar
Ajami, Fouad. 2012. The Syrian Rebellion. Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press.Google Scholar
Albrecht, Holger. 2007. “Authoritarian Opposition and the Politics of Challenge in Egypt.” In Debating Arab Authoritarianism, ed. Schlumberger, Oliver. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Al-Momani, Mohammad. 2011. “The Arab ‘Youth Quake.’Middle East Law and Governance 3(1-2): 159–70.Google Scholar
Anderson, Lisa. 2011. “Demystifying the Arab Spring.” Foreign Affairs 90(3): 27.Google Scholar
Asseburg, Muriel, ed. 2012. Protest, Revolt, and Regime Change in the Arab World. Berlin: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik.Google Scholar
Barany, Zoltan. 2011. “The Role of the Military.” Journal of Democracy 22(4): 2435.Google Scholar
Bartolini, Stefano. 2000. The Political Mobilization of the European Left. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Beinin, Joel, and Vairel, Frédéric. 2011. “The Middle East and North Africa.” In Social Movements, Mobilization, and Contestation in the Middle East and North Africa, ed. Beinin and Vairel. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Beissinger, Mark. 2007. “Structure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena.” Perspectives on Politics 5(2): 259–76.Google Scholar
Bellin, Eva. 2012. “Reconsidering the Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East.” Comparative Politics 44(2): 127–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brownlee, Jason. 2007. Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brownlee, Jason, Masoud, Tarek, and Reynolds, Andrew. Forthcoming. After the Awakening: Revolt, Reform, and Renewal in the Arab World. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Bunce, Valerie, and Wolchik, Sharon. 2011. Defeating Authoritarian Leaders in Postcommunist Countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Clark, Phil. 2012. “An Arab Spring South of the Sahara?Public Policy Research 19(1): 72–4.Google Scholar
Comninos, Alex. 2011. “Twitter Revolutions and Cyber Crackdowns.” N.p.: Association for Progressive Communications.Google Scholar
Dalacoura, Katerina. 2012. “The 2011 Uprisings in the Arab Middle East.” International Affairs 88(1): 6379.Google Scholar
Dowe, Dieter, Haupt, Heinz-Gerhard, Langewiesche, Dieter, and Sperber, Jonathan, eds. 2001. Europe in 1848: Revolution and Reform. New York: Berghahn.Google Scholar
Eley, Geoff. 2002. Forging Democracy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Feiler, Bruce. 2011. Generation Freedom. New York: Harper.Google Scholar
Filiu, Jean-Pierre. 2011. The Arab Revolution. London: Hurst.Google Scholar
Ghonim, Wael. 2012. Revolution 2.0: A Memoir. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, Gerd. 2006. “Out of the Frying Pan into the Fire.” Risk Analysis 26(2): 347–51.Google Scholar
Gilovich, Thomas, Griffin, Dale, and Kahneman, Daniel, eds. 2002. Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Givan, Rebecca, Roberts, Kenneth, and Soule, Sarah. 2010. “The Dimensions of Diffusion.” In The Diffusion of Social Movements, ed. Givan, Rebecca, Roberts, Kenneth, and Soule, Sarah. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Goldstone, Jack. 1986. “Revolutions and Superpowers.” In Superpowers and Revolution, ed. Adelman, Jonathan. New York: Praeger.Google Scholar
Goldstone, Jack. 2011. “Understanding the Revolutions of 2011.” Foreign Affairs 90(3): 816.Google Scholar
Goodwin, Jeff. 2011. “Why We Were Surprised (Again) by the Arab Spring.” Swiss Political Science Review 17(4): 452–56.Google Scholar
Goodwin, Jeff, Jasper, James, and Polletta, Francesca, eds. 2001. Passionate Politics: Emotions and Social Movements. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Hamdy, Sherine. 2012. “Strength and Vulnerability after Egypt's Arab Spring Uprisings.” American Ethnologist 39(1): 4348.Google Scholar
Harb, Zahera. 2011. “Arab Revolutions and the Social Media Effect.” Media/Culture Journal 14(2): 2.Google Scholar
Hastie, Reid, and Dawes, Robyn. 2010. Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, 2d. ed. Los Angeles: Sage.Google Scholar
Heibach, Jens. 2011. “Jemen: Ein zaudernder Despot.” In Die arabische Revolution, ed. Nordhausen, Frank and Schmid, Thomas. Berlin: Christoph Links Verlag.Google Scholar
Hinnebusch, Raymond. 2012. “Syria: From ‘Authoritarian Upgrading’ to Revolution?International Affairs 88(1): 95113.Google Scholar
Hirschman, Albert. 1982. Shifting Involvements. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Hoffman, Michael, and Jamal, Amaney. 2012. “The Youth and the Arab Spring.” Middle East Law and Governance 4(1): 168–88.Google Scholar
Howard, Philip, and Hussain, Muzammil. 2011. “The Role of Digital Media.” Journal of Democracy 22(3): 3548.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel. 1991. The Third Wave. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.Google Scholar
Hvistendahl, Mara. 2011. “Young and Restless Can Be a Volatile Mix.” Science 333, July 29, 552–54.Google Scholar
Jacobs, Andrew. 2011. “Chinese Security Officials Respond to Calls for Protests.” New York Times, February 20.Google Scholar
Jones, Bryan. 1999. “Bounded Rationality.” Annual Review of Political Science 2: 297321.Google Scholar
Joseph, Sarah. 2011. Social Media, Human Rights and Political Change. Melbourne: Monash University.Google Scholar
Kahneman, Daniel, Slovic, Paul, and Tversky, Amos, eds. 1982. Judgment under Uncertainty. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kasinof, Laura. 2011. “Air Goes Out of Protests in a Leaderless Yemen.” New York Times, July 7.Google Scholar
Kasinof, Laura, and Slackman, Michael. 2011. “Dueling Protests in Yemen Unfold Peacefully.” New York Times, February 3.Google Scholar
Khashan, Hilal. 2012. “The Eclipse of Arab Authoritarianism and the Challenge of Popular Sovereignty.” Third World Quarterly 33(5): 919–30.Google Scholar
King, Stephen. 2009. The New Authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa. Bloomington: Indiana University Press.Google Scholar
Kirkpatrick, David. 2011. “Tunisia Unrest Stirs Passions across North African Region.” New York Times, January 17.Google Scholar
Kirkpatrick, David. 2012. “Judge Helped Egypt's Military to Cement Power.” New York Times, July 4.Google Scholar
Kuran, Timur. 1995. Private Truths, Public Lies. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Kuran, Timur, and Sunstein, Cass. 1999. “Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation.” Stanford Law Review 51(4): 683768.Google Scholar
Kurzman, Charles. 1998. “Waves of Democratization.” Studies in Comparative International Development 33(1): 4264.Google Scholar
Kurzman, Charles. 2008. Democracy Denied, 1905–1915. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Landis, Joshua. 2012. “The Syrian Uprising of 2011.” Middle East Policy 19(1): 7284.Google Scholar
Langohr, Vickie. 2004. “Too Much Civil Society, Too Little Politics.” Comparative Politics 36(2): 181204.Google Scholar
Lohmann, Susanne. 1994. “The Dynamics of Informational Cascades.” World Politics 47(1): 42101.Google Scholar
Lohmann, Susanne. 2000. “Collective Action Cascades.” Journal of Economic Surveys 14(5): 655–84.Google Scholar
Lust-Okar, Ellen. 2007. “The Management of Opposition.” In Debating Arab Authoritarianism, ed. Schlumberger, Oliver. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Lutterbeck, Derek. 2012. “Arab Uprisings, Armed Forces, and Civil-Military Relations.” Armed Forces & Society, forthcoming.Google Scholar
Lynch, Marc. 2011. “After Egypt: The Limits and Promise of Online Challenges to the Authoritarian Arab State.” Perspectives on Politics 9(2): 301–10.Google Scholar
Lynch, Marc. 2012. The Arab Uprising. New York: Public Affairs.Google Scholar
Maddy-Weitzman, Bruce. 2012. “Is Morocco Immune to Upheaval?Middle-East Quarterly 19(1): 8793.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott, and Scully, Timothy. 1995. “Introduction.” In Building Democratic Institutions, ed. Mainwaring, Scott and Scully, Timothy. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Marwell, Gerald, and Oliver, Pamela. 1993. The Critical Mass in Collective Action. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Masoud, Tarek. 2011. “Liberty, Democracy, and Discord in Egypt.” Washington Quarterly 34(4): 117–29.Google Scholar
Mercurio (Santiago de Chile). 2011. “La ola de protestas alcanza Libia,” February 17.Google Scholar
Najib, Abdelhak. 2011. “El Khlifi: ‘Nous Irons jusq'au Bout.’” Maroc Hebdo International 922, March 4–10.Google Scholar
Narizny, Kevin. 2012. “Anglo-American Primacy and the Global Spread of Democracy.” World Politics 64(2): 341–73.Google Scholar
Newton-Small, Jay, and Hauslohner, Abigail. 2012. How the Military Won the Egyptian Election. Time, July 9, 28–34.Google Scholar
Nordhausen, Frank, and Schmid, Thomas, eds. 2011. Die arabische Revolution. Berlin: Christoph Links Verlag.Google Scholar
Nunns, Alex, and Idle, Nadia, eds. 2011. Tweets from Tahrir. New York: OR Books.Google Scholar
Osterhammel, Jürgen. 2009. Die Verwandlung der Welt: Geschichte des 19. Jahrhunderts. München: C.H. Beck.Google Scholar
Ottaway, Marina, and Hamzawy, Amr, eds. 2009. Getting to Pluralism: Political Actors in the Arab World. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment.Google Scholar
Owen, John. 2010. The Clash of Ideas in World Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Owen, Roger. 2012. The Rise and Fall of Arab Presidents for Life. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Peerenboom, Randall. 2011. “China and the Revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa.” Middle East Law and Governance 3(1-2): 192203.Google Scholar
Petersen, Roger. 2002. Understanding Ethnic Violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Popkin, Samuel. 1991. The Reasoning Voter. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Puddington, Arch. 2012. “Freedom House Survey for 2011.” Journal of Democracy 23(2): 7488.Google Scholar
Rane, Halim, and Salem, Sumra. 2012. “Social Media, Social Movements and the Diffusion of Ideas in the Arab Uprisings.” Journal of International Communication 18(1): 97111.Google Scholar
Rashad, Hoda. 2012. Rising from Tahrir. N.p.Google Scholar
Rashed, Mohammed. 2011. “The Egyptian Revolution.” Anthropology Today 27(2): 2227.Google Scholar
Salamey, Imad, and Pearson, Frederic. 2012. “The Collapse of Middle Eastern Authoritarianism.” Third World Quarterly 33(5): 931–48.Google Scholar
Schmid, Thomas. 2011. “Libyen: Revolution gegen den Revolutionsführer.” In Die arabische Revolution, ed. Nordhausen, Frank and Schmid, Thomas. Berlin: Christoph Links Verlag.Google Scholar
Sewell, William. 2005. Logics of History. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Shahid, Anthony. 2011. “In Crowd's Euphoria, No Clear Leadership Emerges.” New York Times, January 31.Google Scholar
Simon, Herbert. 1976. Administrative Behavior. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Solomon, Samuel. 2012. “Cascades in Cairo: The Role of Facebook and Twitter in the Egyptian Revolution of 2011.” Honor's thesis, Edmund Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University.Google Scholar
Soueif, Ahdaf. 2012. Cairo: My City, Our Revolution. London: Bloomsbury.Google Scholar
Stacher, Joshua. 2012. Adaptable Autocrats: Regime Power in Egypt and Syria. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Stolberg, Sheryl. 2011. “Shy U.S. Intellectual Created Playbook Used in a Revolution.” New York Times, February 16.Google Scholar
Taha, Amira, and Combs, Christopher. 2012. “Of Drama and Performance: Transformative Discourses of the Revolution.” In Translating Egypt's Revolution, ed. Mehrez, Samia. Cairo: American University in Cairo Press.Google Scholar
Tarrow, Sidney. 2005. The New Transnational Activism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Tarrow, Sidney. 2011. Power in Movement, 3d. ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Tilly, Charles, Tilly, Louise, and Tilly, Richard. 1975. The Rebellious Century, 1830–1930. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Traugott, Mark. 2010. The Insurgent Barricade. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Tsebelis, George. 1990. Nested Games. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Vairel, Frédéric. 2011. “Protesting in Authoritarian Situations.” In Social Movements, Mobilization, and Contestation in the Middle East and North Africa, ed. Beinin, Joel and Vairel, Frédéric. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Valenzuela, Javier. 2012. “Desencanto árabe 2.0.” El País (Madrid), March 4.Google Scholar
Waraich, Omar. 2011. “Inspired by Egypt, Thousands Protest on Moroccan Streets.” Independent, February 21.Google Scholar
Way, Lucan. 2011. “Comparing the Arab Revolts: The Lessons of 1989.” Journal of Democracy 22(4): 1323.Google Scholar
Weyland, Kurt. 2009. “The Diffusion of Revolution: ‘1848’ in Europe and Latin America.” International Organization 63(3): 391423.Google Scholar
Weyland, Kurt. 2012. Diffusion Waves in European Democratization: The Impact of Organizational Development. Comparative Politics 45(1): 2545.Google Scholar
Whitehead, Andrew. 2011. “Eric Hobsbawm on 2011.” BBC News Magazine, December 22.Google Scholar
Whitehead, Laurence. 2001. “Three International Dimensions of Democratization.” In The International Dimensions of Democratization, ed. Whitehead, Laurence. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Wickham, Carrie. 2011. “The Muslim Brotherhood and Democratic Transition in Egypt.” Middle East Law and Governance 3(1-2): 204–23.Google Scholar