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RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS: RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT

A Panel Discussion with Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 March 2013

Kevin D. Hoover  and
Warren Young
Kevin D. Hoover*
Affiliation:
Duke University
Warren Young
Affiliation:
Bar Ilan University
*
Address correspondence to: Kevin D. Hoover, Department of Economics and Department of Philosophy, Duke University, Box 90097, Durham, NC 27278, USA; e-mail: [email protected].
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Extract

The transcript of a panel discussion marking the 50th anniversary of John Muth's “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements” (Econometrica 1961). The panel consisted of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion was moderated by Kevin Hoover and Warren Young. The panel touched on a wide variety of issues related to the rational-expectations hypothesis, including its history, starting with Muth's work at Carnegie Tech; its methodological role; applications to policy; its relationship to behavioral economics; its role in the recent financial crisis; and its likely future.

The panel discussion was held in a session sponsored by the History of Economics Society at the Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) meetings in the Capitol 1 Room of the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Denver, Colorado.

Keywords

Rational ExpectationsJohn F. MuthMacroeconomicsDynamicsMacroeconomic PolicyBehavioral EconomicsEfficient Markets
Type
MD Dialogue
Information
Macroeconomic Dynamics , Volume 17 , Issue 5 , July 2013 , pp. 1169 - 1192
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013 

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