The focus of this work is the analysis of changes in completed family size and possible determinants of that size over time, in an attempt to characterize the evolution of reproductive patterns during the demographic transition. With this purpose in mind, time trends are studied in relation to the mean number of live births per family (as an indirect measure of fertility), using family reconstitution techniques to trace the reproductive history of each married woman. The population surveyed is a Spanish rural community called Lanciego, located at the southern end of the province of Alava (Basque Country). A total of 24,510 parish records of baptisms, marriages and burials made between 1800 and 1969 were examined to obtain the demographic data set. For each reconstituted family, the variables included in the study were the number of live births per family or family size (FAMS), year of marriage (YEAR), age at marriage of both partners (AMAN, AWOM), wife’s age at the end of marriage (WEND), duration of marriage (MARD), age at first maternity (A1CH), length of reproductive span (REPS) and number of children dying before their first anniversary (MINF). Through a principal component analysis, three factors were found that explained more than 75% of the total variance. Association of variables in factors I and III was particularly useful in characterizing the variability of mean family size in pre-transitional, transitional and post-transitional cohorts. During demographic transition, a decreasing trend is observed in the variables FAMS, REPS and MINF, while variables AWOM, AMAN, WEND and A1CH show a tendency to increase over the 20th century. Results obtained by multiple regression analysis confirm that the best predictors of family size (dependent variable) were REPS and MINF, which between them explained over 85% of the total variation in FAMS (R2=0·853). In Lanciego, birth control seems to be present on the evidence of an increase in age at first maternity and a decrease in age at last parturition, indicating that the beginning of the reproductive span is delayed and its end is brought forward. Interaction between family size and infant mortality is discussed in the light of various hypotheses, including replacement of descendants, the so-called biological effect and the theory of r and k selection.

This paper presents a new approach to cost analysis of family planning programmes that focuses on behaviour change of programme clients as the final ‘output’ rather than units of contraceptive services delivered, as does the familiar couple-years-of-protection index. It is useful to know how much it costs to deliver a unit of contraceptive services, but it would also seem useful to know how much it costs to change a prospective client’s behaviour. The proposed approach rests on the familiar ‘steps to behaviour change’ paradigm and: (1) develops a methodology for applying a client-behaviour-change-centred cost analysis to programme activities; (2) tests the methodology and concepts by applying them retrospectively to a case study of mass media interventions in Egypt; (3) derives cost per unit of behaviour changes for these Egyptian communications campaigns to demonstrate the workability of the approach. This framework offers a new approach to impact evaluation that would seem to be applicable to other components of family planning and reproductive health programmes.

Based on the authors’ interview survey for 608 randomly selected women of the rural Arab population in the South Ghor district of Jordan, this paper examined the effects of polygyny and consanguinity on high fertility, which was recognized as natural fertility. The prevalence of polygynous and consanguineous marriages was 28·0% and 58·1%, respectively, largely reflecting the population’s traditional marriage customs. The findings highlighted a significantly higher total marital fertility rate (TMFR) in the monogamous wives (10·5) than in the senior polygynous (8·1) and junior polygynous wives (8·6); the TMFR did not significantly differ among the wives of non-consanguineous, first-cousin and second-cousin marriages. The formation of polygynous marriage was decided by the husband, mostly as a result of his senior wife’s infecundity or sub-fecundity, and the age of the husband at marriage to his junior polygynous wife was high in many cases, leading to a decline in this wife’s fecundity.

This analysis used data, primarily from the 1997 Vietnamese Demographic and Health Survey (VN-DHS 1997), to determine the changes in contraceptive use in Vietnam. A descriptive analysis of individual, household and community characteristics was made to obtain a general description of contraceptive use. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were also performed on the currently married in (a) a sample of all women and (b) only those women who live in rural areas, to identify the strength of association that each variable has with the use of modern contraceptives. The use of any contraceptive method and the use of modern methods increased from 1988 to 1997. The primary contraceptive method utilized is the IUD and its use has increased substantially from 1988 to 1997. Younger women (aged 15–24) were less likely to use any contraceptive method. Women not desiring additional children were significantly more likely to use contraceptive methods than those desiring more children. Education has a clear impact on both contraceptive knowledge and use by women, with higher educated women being more likely to use a contraceptive method. Illiterate women with no formal education were significantly less likely to use modern methods of contraception. Differentials in contraceptive use exist regarding place of residence. Urban women are more likely than rural women to use contraception, but the difference is not large. Women living in mountainous areas are less likely to use contraception, compared with women living in the lowlands. Living standards, especially the availability of electricity in the community, have a large effect on the methods of contraception adopted by women. Religion is not strongly related to the contraceptive behaviour of women. There were significant differences in the use of contraceptives in communities with good quality of care, with increased contraceptive use corresponding to the increase in availability of family planning workers at communes, provision of counselling services at health facilities, and the volume of mass media family planning messages.

The perspectives of mothers-in-law about intra-household decision-making, family size and family planning are investigated, and their views compared with those of their sons and daughters-in-law. Women (717 daughters-in-law), their husbands (717 sons) and their 522 mothers-in-law were interviewed in eight squatter settlements in Karachi, Pakistan. Decisions about the schooling and health care of children, and the purchase of jewellery, are perceived to lie within the nuclear family domain (i.e. husband and wife). There was a difference in mothers-in-law’s, daughters-in-law’s and sons’ desire to have more children. Twenty-eight per cent of mothers-in-law versus 58% of daughters-in-law did not want more grandsons/sons and 36% of mothers-in-law versus 66% of daughters-in-law did not want more granddaughters/daughters. The difference was markedly greater among the mother-in-law/daughter-in-law pairs than in the mother/son pairs. Overall, the mother-in-law’s role seems to be somewhat overshadowed by that of her son (family male member), except for limiting family size. It is suggested that mothers-in-law should be included in Information–Education–Communication (IEC) campaigns about family planning.

After contraceptive use, breast-feeding duration is the major determinant of the birth interval length. Three methods of estimating births averted by breast-feeding, and the increase in contraceptive use needed to substitute for breast-feeding, are presented. Method 1 simply utilizes Bongaarts’ Ci, and the other two are based on mean birth intervals with and without breast-feeding. Estimates for each method are derived for six countries with DHS surveys from the mid-1990s: Burkina Faso, Uganda, India, Indonesia, Brazil and Peru. The estimated percentage of additional births that would occur if there were no breast-feeding ranged from 1–4% in Brazil to about 50% in Burkina Faso and Uganda, reflecting very low breast-feeding in Brazil and very high levels in the sub-Saharan African nations. Strengths and limitations of the three methods are considered.

This study evaluated the strength of the independent effects of social position (expressed by educational level) and number of childbirths on body mass index (BMI) variation of Polish adult females. The material comprised 2045 pre-menopausal women aged 35–50, who were healthy and occupationally active inhabitants of the city of Wrocław, Lower Silesia, Poland. Two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed that both educational level (F=34·7; p=0·0001) and parity (F=5·6; p=0·001) exerted independent significant effects on BMI. The mean BMI of women who had attended basic vocational or trade school at the very most (27·0 kg/m2) was greater than that of women who had completed secondary school education or had graduated from university (25·3 kg/m2). However, it is worthy of note that there were no social differences in BMI values between childless women. Nevertheless, an increasing number of childbirths was essentially related to increasing female BMI in each social group, and this tendency was most marked among women of lower social position. Regardless of educational level, the highest prevalence of obesity (BMI exceeding 30 kg/m2) was found among females with at least three children (15·6% and 26·4% of women from higher or lower social groups, respectively).

This study analyses the social, physiological and motivational determinants of sexual activity for 644 married women in rural areas of Osun State, Nigeria. The data come from the Fertility Awareness and Pregnancy Avoidance study conducted in 1993–94. Sexual activity is measured by three continuous variables: weekly frequency of (1) total sexual activity, (2) coital-only sex and (3) both coital/non-coital sex. Analyses of variance were performed to test the difference in group means between the predictor variables and measures of sexual activity. Ordinary least squares regression analyses were then performed for the three dependent variables. Two models are used: the first contains only those variables associated with an individual’s demographic, social and economic status, and the second adds predictor variables associated with motivational and physiological factors. Results show that while many socioeconomic variables by themselves are significantly associated with sexual activity measures, the addition of physiological and motivational variables weakens their effects and lessens their original statistical significance. Additionally, the socioeconomic and demographic factors associated with frequency of sexual activity are not necessarily the same ones significantly associated with coital-only or combined coital/non-coital sex. While other studies have tended to focus either on socioeconomic or physiological factors, the joint examination of both types of influences seems to indicate that the latter have more proximate effects on the frequency of both coital and non-coital sexual activity of married women in this population. Contraceptive protection is shown to be highly positively associated with all three of the sexual activity measures, empirically confirming the important relationship between contraception and both coital and non-coital forms of sexual activity.

The study analyses various sex differences observed among children in WFS and DHS surveys conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Four outcome indicators are presented: neonatal mortality, postneonatal mortality, child mortality and prevalence of malnutrition. Three indicators of health seeking behaviour are presented: vaccination, oral rehydration therapy and duration of breast-feeding. The statistical analysis focuses on comparison of the observed distributions of the sex ratios to theoretical distributions expected from the sample sizes of the various surveys. The results show the absence of any difference in health seeking behaviour between boys and girls, whether for preventive medicine (vaccination), curative medicine (oral rehydration therapy) or feeding practices (breast-feeding). On the other hand, mortality appears to be consistently higher for boys, more so among neonates (+28%) than among 1–12-month-olds (+8%) and 1–4-year-olds (+4%), and similarly malnutrition appears to be more prevalent among boys (+5%). The contrast between the lack of differences in behavioural indicators and the significant differences in outcome indicators suggests a biological causality. Results are discussed in the light of biological factors.

This study examines the extent of the interrelationship between future fertility intention and subsequent fertility behaviour in rural Bangladesh using longitudinal data. It confirms that fertility intention is an important predictor of subsequent fertility behaviour for rural Bangladeshi women. Women wanting no more children are over three times less likely to have a child during a 5-year follow-up than those wanting more children. A multivariate model using logistic regression shows that fertility intention is a useful indicator for fertility behaviour, when background and life-cycle variables are controlled. The different patterns of fertility intentions by socioeconomic and demographic subgroups suggest that different programme strategies should be designed for specific target groups.