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A Branching Process for Virus Survival

Part of: Special processes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2016

J. Theodore Cox  and
Rinaldo B. Schinazi
J. Theodore Cox*
Affiliation:
Syracuse University
Rinaldo B. Schinazi*
Affiliation:
University of Colorado
*
∗ Postal address: Department of Mathematics, Syracuse University, 215 Carnegie Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244-1150, USA.
∗∗ Postal address: Department of Mathematics, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO 80933-7150, USA. Email address: [email protected]
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Abstract

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Quasispecies theory predicts that there is a critical mutation probability above which a viral population will go extinct. Above this threshold the virus loses the ability to replicate the best-adapted genotype, leading to a population composed of low replicating mutants that is eventually doomed. We propose a new branching model that shows that this is not necessarily so. That is, a population composed of ever changing mutants may survive.

Keywords

Quasispeciesbranching processrandom environmentevolution

MSC classification

Primary: 60K37: Processes in random environments
Secondary: 92D25: Population dynamics (general)
Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 49 , Issue 3 , September 2012 , pp. 888 - 894
Copyright
© Applied Probability Trust 

Footnotes

Supported in part by NSF grant 0803517.

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