National health insurance (NHI) Taiwan has provided additional markups on dental service fees for people with specific disabilities, and the expenditure has increased significantly from TWD473 million (USD15 million) in 2016 to TWD722 million (USD24 million) in 2022. The purpose of this study was to determine oral health risk and to develop a risk assessment model for capitation outpatient dental payments in children with Autism.

Based on the literature and expert opinion, we developed a level of oral health risk model from the claim records of 2019. The model uses oral outpatient claim data to analyze: (i) the degree of caries disease; (ii) the level of dental fear or cooperation; and (iii) the level of tooth structure. Each factor was given a score from zero to four and a total score was calculated. Low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were formed based on the total points. The oral health risk capitation models are estimated by ordinary least squares using an individual’s annual outpatient dental expenditure in 2019 as the dependent variable. For subgroups based on age group and level of disability, expenditures predicted by the models are compared with actual outpatient dental expenditures. Predictive R-squared and predictive ratios were used to evaluate the model’s predictability.

The demographic variables, level of oral health risk, preventive dental care, and the type of dental health care predicted 30 percent of subsequent outpatient dental expenditure in children with autism. For subgroups (age group and disability level) of high-risk patients, the model substantially overpredicted the expenditure, whereas underprediction occurred in the low-risk group.

The risk-adjusted model based on principal oral health was more accurate in predicting an individual’s future expenditure than the relevant study in Taiwan. The finding provides insight into the important risk factor in the outpatient dental expenditure of children with autism and the fund planning of dental services for people with specific disabilities.