We have applied an approximately Bayesian and a fully Bayesian analysis to the calculation of Cepheid distances, radii and absolute magnitudes using the surface brightness (Baade–Wesselink) method. Both methods successfully account for errors in the data, provide unbiased distance estimates, and provide objective model selection for the radial velocity curve. In addition, the fully Bayesian analysis objectively selects a model for the magnitude curve; averages over models of various Fourier orders, properly weighted by the posterior probabilities of the individual models; and includes a Lutz–Kelker correction.

The approximately Bayesian method is that described by Jefferys & Barnes (1999) and Barnes & Jefferys (1999). It is a maximum likelihood approach with objective selection of the order of the Fourier series model of the radial velocities.