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Simulating Success or Failure: Another Look at Small-Population Dynamics

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Sylvia W. Gaines  and
Warren M. Gaines
Sylvia W. Gaines
Affiliation:
Department of Anthropology, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-2402
Warren M. Gaines
Affiliation:
CSD&A, 3602 North 49th Street, Phoenix, AZ 85018
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Abstract

Simulation can be an effective tool for investigating the demography of small, prehistoric Southwest Pueblo communities. The model presented here incorporates biological and physiological, cultural, and behavioral characteristics and tracks each individual as the simulation of a small population is carried forward through 70 years of annual iterations. Sensitivity analyses are performed for a suite of critical parameter values. Many of parameters and functions are probabilistic, and Monte Carlo techniques are used to obtain statistically significant results. Simulation results are collected on numerous variables that profile the individual and group characteristics such as mortality, immigration to emigration ratio, nuclear family formation, and distribution of population size and mix. Initial success is dependent on the attributes of the founding population and its gender mix. The long-term survival of a small population is extremely sensitive to the mortality schedule, attributes of the founding population, and marriage-residence rules. Small shifts in the age-specific mortality statistics dramatically affect the population growth and the frequency of site collapse. The consequences of inaccuracies in mortality statistics are highlighted.

El tema de este artácule es la simulación comprensiva de una pequeña comunidad prehistórica Pueblo del suroeste norteamericano que incluye un módulo del ciclo de vida de la población. El módulo del ciclo de vida de la población incorpora características biológicas, culturales y conductuales y sigue la trayectoria de cada individuo al llevar la simulación de esta pequena población a lo largo de 70 aóos de repeticiones anuales. Los paramètres y las funciones empleadas son fácilmente ajustables y pueden ser examinadas en una amplia escala de condiciones. Se utilizan las técnicas Monte Carlo y se presentan los resultados para un grupo de valores de parámetres críticos. La supervivencia de una pequeña población demuestra ser extremadamente sensible al calendario de supervivencia y a las reglas de residencia marital. El éxito inicial es dependiente de la esperanza de vida de la población fundadora y de la mezcla de sexos de sus descendientes. Los resultados de la simulación se tomaron de numerosas variables las cuales perfilan las características individuates y grupales taies como récord de mortalidad, tendencias en la proporción inmigración/emigración, organizatión de la familia nuclear y mezcla poblacional. Cambios pequeños en las estadistícas de edad especifica de sobrevivencia demuestran que éstos influyen dramaticamente en el potential de crecimiento de la población y en la frecuencia de su colapso. Se destacan las consecuencias de las inexactitudes en las estadisticas de mortalidad.

Type
Reports
Information
American Antiquity , Volume 62 , Issue 4 , October 1997 , pp. 683 - 697
Copyright
Copyright © The Society for American Archaeology 1997

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