Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Abbreviations and mathematical symbols
- Prologue
- 1 Seismology: ancient and modern
- 2 Statistical solutions to seismological problems
- 3 Seismograms as time series
- 4 Seismographs and seismograms
- 5 Seismometer arrays and processing methods
- 6 Seismogram interpretation and synthesis
- 7 Hypocentres and P travel times
- 8 Seismic magnitudes
- 9 Seismic source identification
- 10 Epilogue
- Appendix A P and S radiation from a double-couple source
- Appendix B Normal equations for analysis of variance
- Appendix C Some uses of the FFT
- Appendix D Anelastic attenuation
- Appendix E The relation of the transient and steady-state responses
- Appendix F Seismometer–galvanometer systems
- Appendix G SNI from summing array recordings
- Appendix H The equations for computing MP filters
- Appendix I Circular arrays
- Appendix J Geometrical spreading when S reflects as sP
- Appendix K The Fourier integral for a dispersed wave train
- Appendix L Tables of explosions and earthquakes
- Appendix M Album of body-wave seismograms
- Appendix N Exercises
- References
- Further reading
- Author index
- Index
10 - Epilogue
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 March 2013
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Abbreviations and mathematical symbols
- Prologue
- 1 Seismology: ancient and modern
- 2 Statistical solutions to seismological problems
- 3 Seismograms as time series
- 4 Seismographs and seismograms
- 5 Seismometer arrays and processing methods
- 6 Seismogram interpretation and synthesis
- 7 Hypocentres and P travel times
- 8 Seismic magnitudes
- 9 Seismic source identification
- 10 Epilogue
- Appendix A P and S radiation from a double-couple source
- Appendix B Normal equations for analysis of variance
- Appendix C Some uses of the FFT
- Appendix D Anelastic attenuation
- Appendix E The relation of the transient and steady-state responses
- Appendix F Seismometer–galvanometer systems
- Appendix G SNI from summing array recordings
- Appendix H The equations for computing MP filters
- Appendix I Circular arrays
- Appendix J Geometrical spreading when S reflects as sP
- Appendix K The Fourier integral for a dispersed wave train
- Appendix L Tables of explosions and earthquakes
- Appendix M Album of body-wave seismograms
- Appendix N Exercises
- References
- Further reading
- Author index
- Index
Summary
… there are things that we know we don't know.
… there are things we don't know we don't know.
Donald Rumsfeld US Secretary of Defense from 2001 to 2006 Statement made on 12 February 2002 at a press briefingIntroduction
At an early USA–UK meeting to discuss test ban verification, the participants were asked what year they thought a treaty would be agreed. There was apparently a wide range of answers, but no one came close to 1996; even the most pessimistic prediction has turned out to be overly optimistic.
Whether there was really a missed opportunity in the early 1960s to agree a treaty is for others to decide. There seems to have been the political will in the USA and UK for a treaty, but with hindsight it would have had to be based on mutual trust because the verification regime that could have been put in place in those early days would have been weak and would have needed constant revision as unknown unknowns became known unknowns. The size and complexity of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) shows just what is required for a truly global verification system.
The past 50 years has been a period of learning – and the learning continues – for those seismologists who have spent their careers trying to solve the problems of verification.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Forensic Seismology and Nuclear Test Bans , pp. 372 - 384Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2013