Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of contributors
- List of figures
- List of tables
- Preface
- Part I Reflections on input-output economics
- Part II Perspectives of input-output economics
- 10 A neoclassical analysis of total factor productivity using input-output prices
- 11 What has happened to the Leontief Paradox?
- 12 The decline in labor compensation's share of GDP: a structural decomposition analysis for the United States, 1982 to 1997
- 13 An oligopoly model in a Leontief framework
- 14 Economies of plant scale and structural change
- 15 Technological change and accumulated capital: a dynamic decomposition of Japan's growth
- 16 Japan's economic growth and policy-making in the context of input-output models
- 17 Contributions of input-output analysis to the understanding of technological change: the information sector in the United States
- 18 How much can investment change trade patterns? An application of dynamic input-output models linked by international trade to an Italian policy question
- 19 Social cost in the Leontief environmental model: rules and limits to policy
- Subject index
- Author index
18 - How much can investment change trade patterns? An application of dynamic input-output models linked by international trade to an Italian policy question
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 22 September 2009
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of contributors
- List of figures
- List of tables
- Preface
- Part I Reflections on input-output economics
- Part II Perspectives of input-output economics
- 10 A neoclassical analysis of total factor productivity using input-output prices
- 11 What has happened to the Leontief Paradox?
- 12 The decline in labor compensation's share of GDP: a structural decomposition analysis for the United States, 1982 to 1997
- 13 An oligopoly model in a Leontief framework
- 14 Economies of plant scale and structural change
- 15 Technological change and accumulated capital: a dynamic decomposition of Japan's growth
- 16 Japan's economic growth and policy-making in the context of input-output models
- 17 Contributions of input-output analysis to the understanding of technological change: the information sector in the United States
- 18 How much can investment change trade patterns? An application of dynamic input-output models linked by international trade to an Italian policy question
- 19 Social cost in the Leontief environmental model: rules and limits to policy
- Subject index
- Author index
Summary
The problem and our approach to it
In an earlier paper (Almon and Grassini, 1999) we compared the shifts in the industrial structure of employment in seven countries – Italy, France, Spain, Germany, the United States, Japan and China – over the years 1980 to 1995. Among these countries, Italy was outstanding for its slow rate of decline in the share of non-agricultural employment in Textiles and clothing, in Leather and footwear, in Agricultural and industrial machinery, and in Non-metallic mineral products (stone, clay and glass products). By contrast, in comparison to the other countries, the shar of non-agricultural employment declined particularly rapidly – one of the two fastest or a close third – in Chemical products, Metal products, Electrical goods, Office and computing machinery, Motor vehicles, Food and tobacco, Wood and furniture, Paper and printing products, Plastic products and rubber, and Recovery and repair services. The list of sectors where Italy is distinguished by hanging on to employment share are those generally connected with low wages, while those where Italy is leading the decline include most of the high-wage, high-tech sectors. This pattern may be called “low-tech drift.”
The standard forecasts for Italy made with INTIMO – the Interindustry Italian Model, a multisectoral macroeconomic (MM) model – show accelerating rates of decline in Electricity, Non-metallic mineral products, Chemicals, Metal products, Office and computing machinery, Electrical goods, Motor vehicles, Other transportation equipment, Textiles, Leather, Paper, and Plastic products.
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- Wassily Leontief and Input-Output Economics , pp. 337 - 366Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2004