The Myanmar/Burma Update conference at which this paper was presented took place six months after the elections, one hundred days after the convening of legislatures, and fifty days after the new government took over. It was thus a good moment to take an initial look at developments in the political situation. Of course, the danger of analysing current political trends in a paper that will be published a year hence is that it will inevitably be subjected to the harsh light of hindsight. Indeed, already in the two months between the conference and the finalization of this paper, significant events have occurred, including a resumption of fighting in Kachin areas, the prospect of tensions between the government and Aung San Suu Kyi around her planned travels in the country, and some jostling for authority and influence among senior members of the new power structures. Any of these could lead to developments that could significantly change the course of events in the next year.

Hence, this chapter will focus more on how developments in Myanmar should be assessed, rather than on giving detailed predictions on what developments can be expected. A broader perspective on change such as this, it is hoped, will better stand the test of time and will be most relevant in any ongoing consideration of where Myanmar is heading in this new period of “disciplined democracy”.

The Nature of Political Change

In conducting any analysis of the situation, the most important question to ask ourselves is, What will political change look like in Myanmar, and how will we recognize it when we see it? This is important, because if we cannot answer this question, it is very difficult to assess the current political transition and what it means. There are indeed highly divergent views on the current situation: some analysts are saying that there has been no political change, and that it is merely a matter of “old wine in a new bottle”; others are saying that this is a key moment of transition. Resolving that debate comes down to answering the basic question that I have posed.

It is certainly the case that not much has changed. But I would suggest that if we are witnessing the early stages of a very slow, cautious transition away from fifty years of authoritarianism, we should not expect dramatic change.