Introduction

The many negotiation tactics called “escalation” have at least one feature in common: they are all risky. One famous metaphor for escalation, recounted by O'Neill (1991; see also PBS 1983) makes this point graphically:

The struggle in Vietnam can be interpreted as an implicit negotiation in which the status quo was simply the continuation of the conflict at its current level. From this perspective, Johnson's escalation strategy was to render the status quo less preferable for the opponent – ideally, to make it unendurable – and thereby pave the way for a resolution that Johnson preferred. This tactic, which can be called settlement pressure escalation, is implemented by reducing the opponent's comfort level – withholding services, impounding assets, supporting its domestic opposition, etc. Settlement pressure escalation is sometimes seen as a good if costly bet, which the initiator “wins” if the target gives in first. However, as more recent events in the former Yugoslavia clearly demonstrate, this bet is risky – success is far from certain, and the initiator's costs can easily exceed those of the target.