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5 - Whither the BRICS? Final Considerations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 November 2024

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Summary

A sense of disappointment permeates this book, or at least parts of it. But, as mentioned in the introduction, this is to some extent a consequence of the perhaps excessive ambition that people like me had at the outset of the BRICS process in 2008 and, especially, when the CRA and NDB, after difficult negotiations, were successfully launched in Fortaleza in July 2014. Nevertheless, looking at the big picture and trying to imagine things to come, I believe it is safe to say that the BRICS are here to stay. Cooperation between the five countries is likely to continue uninterrupted, with ups and downs of course, but sufficiently strong to decisively affect their international relations and the balance of power in an increasingly multipolar world. Not only is the development bank something unique in the history of our countries, but the BRICS process as a whole should be seen and valued from this angle—as the unprecedented transregional joining of forces of nations with different features and histories but united by common strategic purposes.

Since the creation of the BRICS, China's relative political and economic importance has increased continuously—in the world and relatively to the other BRICS countries. The group has become more lopsided than it originally was and, on present trends, will become even more so in the future. However, a point I made about my experience in Shanghai—that the Chinese very rarely threw their weight around and were respectful of the other four countries—can be made more broadly about China's behavior in the BRICS process as a whole.

In any case, the other four countries will undoubtedly continue to have a significant weight. India, in particular, also accounts for a rising share of the world's economy and, even more than China, of the world's population. Russia has demonstrated, time and again, its capacity to act independently and vigorously in several regions of the world. The country is respected and even feared. South Africa will continue to hold the key to events in sub-Saharan Africa. Brazil, currently at its nadir, will sooner or later again play the constructive and independent role the world is accustomed to see.

Type
Chapter
Information
The BRICS and the Financing Mechanisms They Created
Progress and Shortcomings
, pp. 67 - 70
Publisher: Anthem Press
Print publication year: 2021

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