PETER BERGEN

The conventional wisdom is that capturing or killing Osama bin Laden does not really make any difference. But the question of what happens if he is captured or killed should be considered.

Al Qaeda, as general wisdom has it, is now an ideological movement. But it is also more than that. We know now that Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri do not have to be in command and control of al Qaeda anymore. Still, we have twenty-eight video and/or audiotapes from al-Zawahiri or bin Laden since 9/11. Although these tapes – especially the twenty-eighth tape from al-Zawahiri – make it clear that, obviously, they do not retain such power, nevertheless, these audiotapes and videotapes demonstrate that both men continue to influence what happens. These tapes energize the base with the overt message: “Kill Westerners. Kill Americans. Kill Jews.” But they also include specific instructions. For example, in December of 2003 Ayman al-Zawahiri called for attacks on President Musharraf. Very shortly thereafter, there were two serious assassination attempts against President Musharraf. And when, following that, bin Laden called for attacks on members of the coalition in Iraq, there were the attacks on the British bank and consulate in Istanbul. These were followed by the attack on the Italian police barracks in Nasiriya in southern Iraq and then finally by the bombing in Madrid on March 11, 2003.