The question of when and how a European consensus or trend contributes to shaping rights guaranteed by the European Convention on Human Rights and its Protocols is controversial. The European Court of Human Rights quite often performs an analysis of the laws and practices of the Council of Europe’s Member States or of relevant international material. However, the cases where rights have actually been shaped by a European consensus or trend are quite rare. In the last twenty-five years, some 27 out of 424 judgments on the merits of the Grand Chamber of the Court established a consensus or trend having a “shaping impact” on these rights. Further, only one advisory opinion based on Protocol No. 16 contained comparative law material having such an influence. This Article assesses the intensity of the impact of a consensus or a trend analysis on a judgment’s or an advisory opinion’s ratio decidendi, shows what shaping a right actually means, and suggests that cases that are more prone to a potentially persuasive consensus or trend analysis will typically deal with matters of political or general policy, sensitive moral or ethical issues, or changes in the case law.

The epidemiological and burden characteristics of nutritional deficiencies (ND) have been evolving, and it is crucial to identify geographical disparities and emerging trends. This study aimed to analyse the global, regional and national trends in the burden of ND over the past 30 years. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database for the period 1990–2019. The study examined the incidence rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of ND at various levels. Globally, the incidence rate of ND decreased from 2226·2 per 100 000 in 2019 to 2096·3 per 100 000 in the same year, indicating a decline of 5·8 %. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was −0·21 (–0·31, −0·11). Similarly, DALY, prevalence and mortality rates of ND exhibited significant declines (AAPC = −3·21 (–3·45, −2·96), AAPC = −0·53 (–0·55, −0·51) and AAPC = −4·97 (–5·75, −4·19), respectively). The incidence rate of ND varied based on age group, sex, cause and geographical area. Moreover, a negative association was observed between incidence and the sociodemographic index. At the regional level, the South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa regions had the highest incidence rates of ND. In conclusion, the global incidence rate of ND showed a mixed pattern, while the DALY rate consistently declined. Additionally, prevalence and mortality rates of ND decreased between 1990 and 2019.

The green turtle Chelonia mydas is a large marine turtle present in tropical and subtropical seas of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. It is categorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List based on the trend of nesting populations at 32 sites, of which only three are in the Pacific Ocean. New Caledonia is a sui generis overseas territory of France in the south-west Pacific Ocean c. 1,210 km east of Australia. The presence of green turtles in New Caledonian waters is known, although the main nesting sites are far from the main island, on remote uninhabited islands. Since 1988 field missions to these remote reefs, namely d'Entrecasteaux, Bellona and Chesterfield, have collected data to quantify the nesting of green turtles in New Caledonia. For the first time we analyse the data collected during these missions. D'Entrecasteaux, Bellona and Chesterfield Reefs host a large nesting colony of green turtles, with the upper credible estimate of nesting activities reaching 150,000 nesting tracks in some years. These numbers exceed the estimated number of green turtle activities in the Pacific. The trend of the number of nesting activities is stable and has the same relationship with the Southern Oscillation Index as observed at Australian nesting sites. Our recommendations for the French authorities are to continue monitoring these populations, collect new demographic parameters and ensure the protection of these remote reefs, which should be considered a national treasure for New Caledonia.

Identifying trends in dietary salt sources is essential for effectively reducing salt/Na intake. This study aimed to examine the trends in dietary salt sources among Japanese adults using the 2007–2019 National Health and Nutrition Survey data collected from 95 581 adults aged ≥ 20 years. Dietary intake was estimated using the 1-d household-based dietary record. Foods reported as potential sources of salt intake in Japan and other countries were categorised into twenty-one groups. Salt intake for each food group was adjusted using the density method based on the energy intake. Trends in dietary salt intake based on food sources by sex and age groups (20–39 years, 40–59 years and ≥ 60 years) were analysed using the Joinpoint Regression Program. Salt intake for each age group in both men and women decreased from 2007 (5·3 g/1000 kcal–6·4 g/1000 kcal) to 2019 (4·9 g/1000 kcal–5·6 g/1000 kcal). The major dietary source of salt continued to be seasonings such as soya sauce and soyabean paste (approximately 70 %). Salt intake from seasonings decreased over time in adults aged ≥ 40 years but did not change in those aged 20–39 years. Additionally, a decreasing salt intake from unprocessed fish and shellfish and an increasing salt intake from unprocessed meat were observed across all age categories for both sexes. This study demonstrated that a strategy targeting different age groups may be needed to reduce salt consumption from seasonings among the Japanese population. Further studies on salt content in seasonings and continued monitoring of trends in dietary salt sources are required.

The global population is projected to be enormous by the mid-21st century, whereas, most essential crops being sustained by the rain-fed agriculture are threatened by climate change. Therefore, the study investigated the projected near-future effect of rainfall variability on rot incidence and yam production in humid tropical Nigeria. Production data from the Food and Agriculture Organization and the Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics showed the significant increasing trend in the annual yam output. The field survey conducted in 2018 showed that the maximum percentage of rot incidence occurred in July. Climate Research Unit observational rainfall data from 1979 to 2018 showed the nonsignificant trend in the interannual rainfall variability; however, it showed low variability and a significant decreasing trend in the July rainfall. A pathogenicity test on yam samples confirmed rot by fungi, bacteria and nematodes as virulent pathogens, whereas, the nutritional qualities of the rotted yams were indicated. Monthly rainfall and rot incidence showed positive correlation (r = 0.84, significant at 99% from t-test). The positive characteristic impact values indicated that increase (decrease) in the monthly rainfall corresponds to increase (decrease) in the magnitude of monthly percentage rot incidence. Thus, the significantly decreasing rainfall reduced the quantity of rot incidence and consequently increased the annual yam production for the period. Selected CoOrdinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment-Africa models and the ensemble mean showed a good measure of agreement with observational rainfall in the historical experiments. The efficiencies of the bias-corrected outputs in the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 indicated improved ‘reasonable’ performances. Bias-corrected projections of the July rainfall showed an increasing trend in both the RCPs, which indicate a potential increase in rot incidence and the consequent decline in annual yam production. The findings are imperative in sustaining the global food supply.

This study aimed at estimating the transmissibility of hepatitis C. The data for hepatitis C cases were collected in six districts in Xiamen City, China from 2004 to 2018. A population-mixed susceptible-infectious-chronic-recovered (SICR) model was used to fit the data and the parameters of the model were calculated. The basic reproduction number (R0) and the number of newly transmitted cases by a primary case per month (MNI) were adopted to quantitatively assess the transmissibility of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Eleven curve estimation models were employed to predict the trends of R0 and MNI in the city. The SICR model fits the reported HCV data well (P < 0.01). The median R0 of each district in Xiamen is 0.4059. R0 follows the cubic model curve, the compound curve and the power function curve. The median MNI of each district in Xiamen is 0.0020. MNI follows the cubic model curve, the compound curve and the power function curve. The transmissibility of HCV follows a decreasing trend, which reveals that under the current policy for prevention and control, there would be a high feasibility to eliminate the transmission of HCV in the city.

A previous panel study of 59 speakers of Montreal French showed an increase in inflected futures (IF) at the expense of periphrastic futures (PF) as this population aged, running counter to the direction of historical change: reduction of IF. Matching two samples of speakers across the same time interval by age and social characteristics, the current trend study investigates whether or not this increase reflects retrograde change in the speech community. Results show community stability over the same period, confirming the earlier age grading interpretation and disconfirming any possibility that the disappearance of IF may be reversing. We propose that this pattern of retrograde lifespan change may emerge from a combination of social forces typically found in late stages of language change, with concomitant stylistic effect. Further, such a pattern may suggest the mechanism that creates a very long tail for retreating variants.

This article examines the development of theatricality in modern dance by comparing two dances: Mary Wigman's Totenmal (1930) and Hanya Holm's Trend (1937). By looking at the interplay between group and solo choreography, lighting design and themes, this paper will show how Holm combined the skills she learned codirecting Totenmal at the Dancers’ Congress in Munich to her work with American dance artists at the Bennington School of the Dance to create her first important work. It will examine why Trend was successful as a collaborative project, as well as show how it diverged ideologically from Wigman's work in the 1930s.

This study set out to identify and analyse trends and seasonal variations of monthly global reported cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). It also made a prediction based on the reported and extrapolated into the future by forecasting the trend. Finally, the study assessed contributions of various risk factors in the reported cases. The motivation for this study is that MERS-CoV remains among the list of blueprint priority and potential pandemic diseases globally. Yet, there is a paucity of empirical literature examining trends and seasonality as the available evidence is generally descriptive and anecdotal. The study is a time series analysis using monthly global reported cases of MERS-CoV by the World Health Organisation between January 2015 and January 2018. We decomposed the series into seasonal, irregular and trend components and identified patterns, smoothened series, generated predictions and employed forecasting techniques based on linear regression. We assessed contributions of various risk factors in MERS-CoV cases over time. Successive months of the MERS-CoV cases suggest a significant decreasing trend (P = 0.026 for monthly series and P = 0.047 for Quarterly series). The MERS-CoV cases are forecast to wane by end 2018. Seasonality component of the cases oscillated below or above the baseline (the centred moving average), but no association with the series over time was noted. The results revealed contributions of risk factors such as camel contact, male, old age and being from Saudi Arabia and Middle East regions to the overall reported cases of MERS-CoV. The trend component and several risk factors for global MERS-CoV cases, including camel contact, male, age and geography/region significantly affected the series. Our statistical models appear to suggest significant predictive capacity and the findings may well inform healthcare practitioners and policymakers about the underlying dynamics that produced the globally reported MERS-CoV cases.