Predation can have cascading, regulatory effects across ecological communities. Knowledge of the diet of predators can therefore provide important information regarding their ecology and conservation, as well as their impacts on prey populations. Using scats collected during 2019–2023 and estimates of prey abundance from aerial surveys, we characterized prey consumption and preferences of the Vulnerable African lion Panthera leo population in Tsavo, Kenya. Biomass models applied to prey frequencies in scats revealed that > 85% of lion diet comprised large ungulates weighing > 150 kg. The Critically Endangered hirola Beatragus hunteri and Endangered Grevy's zebra Equus grevyi (species that were introduced in Tsavo as part of ex situ conservation programmes in the 1960s) were amongst the seven prey species, of 16 detected, that were preferred by lions. Our results potentially indicate a disproportionate impact of lion predation on the small hirola and Grevy's zebra populations. Preferential predation, coupled with high availability of alternative prey, may trap the small populations of hirola and Grevy's zebra within a predator pit. Our findings provide a better understanding of lion diet, optimal foraging and the potential effects predators can have on threatened and rare prey species in an important conservation landscape. Based on our findings, we recommend an observational study of the predation ecology of lions and other predators in this system, to provide information on age- and sex-specific predation rates on hirola and Grevy's zebra for a population viability analysis, to support the management of these two threatened and rare herbivores in Tsavo.

We explore some of the risks related to Artificial Intelligence (AI) from an actuarial perspective based on research from a transregional industry focus group. We aim to define the key gaps and challenges faced when implementing and utilising modern modelling techniques within traditional actuarial tasks from a risk perspective and in the context of professional standards and regulations. We explore best practice guidelines to attempt to define an ideal approach and propose potential next steps to help reach the ideal approach. We aim to focus on the considerations, initially from a traditional actuarial perspective and then, if relevant, consider some implications for non-traditional actuarial work, by way of examples. The examples are not intended to be exhaustive. The group considered potential issues and challenges of using AI, related to the following key themes:

• Ethical

  • ○ Bias, fairness, and discrimination

  • ○ Individualisation of risk assessment

  • ○ Public interest

• Professional

  • ○ Interpretability and explainability

  • ○ Transparency, reproducibility, and replicability

  • ○ Validation and governance

• Lack of relevant skills available

• Wider themes

This paper aims to provide observations that could help inform industry and professional guidelines or discussion or to support industry practitioners. It is not intended to replace current regulation, actuarial standards, or guidelines. The paper is aimed at an actuarial and insurance technical audience, specifically those who are utilising or developing AI, and actuarial industry bodies.

Radiocarbon dates on charred plant remains are often used to define the chronology of archives such as lake cores and fluvial sequences. However, charcoal is often older than its depositional context because old-wood can be burnt and a range of transport and storage stages exist between the woodland and stream or lake bed (“inherited age”). In 1978, Blong and Gillespie dated four size fractions of charcoal found floating or saltating in the Macdonald River, Australia. They found larger fragments gave younger age estimates, raising the possibility that taphonomic modifications could help identify the youngest fragments. In 1978 each date required 1000s charcoal fragments. This study returns to a sample from the Macdonald River to date individual charcoal fragments and finds the inherited age may be more than 1700 years (mode 250 years) older than the collection date. Taphonomic factors, e.g., size, shape or fungal infestation cannot identify the youngest fragments. Only two fragments on short-lived materials correctly estimated the date of collection. In SE Australia, this study suggests that wood charcoal will overestimate the age of deposition, taphonomic modifications cannot be used to identify which are youngest, and multiple short-lived materials are required to accurately estimate the deposition age.

Background: Antibiotic use without a prescription (nonprescription use) leads to antibiotic overuse, with negative consequences for patient and public health. We studied whether screening patients for prior nonprescription antibiotic use in the past 12 months predicted their intentions to use them in the future. Methods: A survey asking respondents about prior and intended nonprescription antibiotic use was performed between January 2020 and June 2021 among patients in waiting rooms of 6 public clinics and 2 private emergency departments in economically and socially diverse urban and suburban areas. Respondents were classified as prior nonprescription users if they reported previously taking oral antibiotics without contacting a doctor, dentist, or nurse. Intended use was defined as answering “yes” or “maybe” to the question, “Would you use antibiotics without contacting a doctor, nurse, or dentist?” We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) of prior nonprescription antibiotic use in the past 12 months for future intended nonprescription use. Bayes PPV and NPV were also calculated, considering the prevalence of nonprescription antibiotic use (24.8%) in our study. Results: Of the 564 patients surveyed, the median age was 51 years (SD, 19–92), with 72% of patients identifying as female. Most were from the public healthcare system (72.5%). Most respondents identified as Hispanic or Latino(a) (47%) or African American (33%), and 57% received Medicaid or the county financial assistance program. Prior nonprescription use was reported by 246 (43%) of 564 individuals, with 91 (16%) reporting nonprescription use within the previous 12 months. Intention to use nonprescription antibiotics was reported by 140 participants (25%). The sensitivity and specificity of prior nonprescription use in the past 12 months to predict the intention to use nonprescription antibiotics in the future were 75.9% (95% CI, 65.3–84.6) and 91.4% (95% CI, 87.8–94.2), respectively. After the Bayes’ adjustment, the PPV and NPV of prior use to predict future intention were 74.5% (95% CI, 66.7–80.9) and 92.0% (95% CI, 88.7–94.4) (Table 1). Conclusions: These results show that prior nonprescription antibiotic use in the past 12 months predicted the intention to use nonprescription antibiotics in the future (PPV of 75%). As a stewardship effort, we suggest clinicians use a simple question about prior nonprescription antibiotic use in primary-care settings as a screening question for patients at high risk for future nonprescription antibiotic use.

Financial support: HSQR-R 5R01HS026901-04

Disclosure: None

Objectives: Ancillary staff members perform operational support functions and play an active role in enhancing the patient care experience. Infection prevention practices among ancillary staff play a critical role in preventing transmission of microorganisms, which ensures the safety of patients. Low hand hygiene compliance was found among porters in a cross-institutional hand hygiene audit in 2021. A quality improvement team was formed to improve hand hygiene compliance, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A focus-group discussion and survey were conducted to understand hand hygiene knowledge and challenges among porters. Using the findings, the team initiated Glo–germ education tools, pocket alcohol hand-rub agents, pocket moisturizer, poster display, and a toolbox messaging system via conversion of group roll call to satellite-area roll call. Respective satellite teams were sent hand hygiene reminders, and prompt corrective action was taken following noncompliance events. Analytic comparisons of pre- and postsurvey data were performed using the χ2 test, and P < .05 was regarded as statistically significant. Results: In total, 572 ancillary staff participated in the survey. Knowledge of hand hygiene practices improved significantly following the interventions, as shown in the comparison of pre- and postintervention results: knowledge of the hand hygiene steps (P < .001), knowledge of the duration of hand rub (P < .001), and knowledge of duration of handwashing (P < .001). Also, 295 staff members (97.68%) stated that implementation measures increased their awareness of the importance of hand hygiene. Moreover, the hand hygiene compliance rate improved from 77.8% to 100%. There were no significant differences related to sex (P = .089), age group (P = .355), years of working (P = .359), education level (P = .268), or difficulty in reading English (P = .906). Conclusions: Evaluating staff hand hygiene knowledge and understanding the challenges faced among porters helped toward the development of appropriate interventions and assurance of success in project.

Something about the way the South looks has long fascinated outsiders and southerners alike. It seems to invite the stunning cover of William Eggleston's The Beautiful Mysterious, which is a blue-tinged, illuminated, nearly empty, parking lot. Another example: the “rust aesthetic” associated with the banged-up signs so common in William Christenberry's photographs seems like an authentic southern thing. In fact, a certain orange-brown, rustlike color permeates many of the photographs in The Beautiful Mysterious. A more shocking visual signifier of southernness has historically been the lynched black body, as, for example, that of Emmett Till in 1955. As it turns out, Eggleston (b. 1939) grew up in Sumner, MS where the murderers of the Chicago teenager were put on trial – and acquitted.

On March 28, 2019, less than two weeks after the Christchurch, New Zealand massacre, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2462. It stands as a signal of the United Nations' continued recognition of the critical importance of finance in combatting and countering global terrorism. Unfortunately, it may also be an indication that states are not doing what they have been urged to do in previous resolutions. The text of 2462 and its preamble are riddled with language like “Reminding,” “Reaffirming,” “Encouraging,” and “Noting with Concern,” rather than with language and ideas that break new ground.

During the Obama presidency, Republicans made major gains in state legislative elections, especially in the South and the Midwest. Republicans’ control grew from 13 legislatures in 2009 to 32 in 2017. A major but largely unexamined consequence of this profound shift in state-level partisan control was the resurgence of efforts to re-segregate public education. We examine new re-segregation policies, especially school district secession and anti-busing laws, which have passed in these states. We argue that the marked reversal in desegregation patterns and upturn in re-segregated school education is part of the Republican Party's anti-civil rights and anti-federal strategies, dressed up in the ideological language of colour-blindness.

We show that propensity score matching (PSM), an enormously popular method of preprocessing data for causal inference, often accomplishes the opposite of its intended goal—thus increasing imbalance, inefficiency, model dependence, and bias. The weakness of PSM comes from its attempts to approximate a completely randomized experiment, rather than, as with other matching methods, a more efficient fully blocked randomized experiment. PSM is thus uniquely blind to the often large portion of imbalance that can be eliminated by approximating full blocking with other matching methods. Moreover, in data balanced enough to approximate complete randomization, either to begin with or after pruning some observations, PSM approximates random matching which, we show, increases imbalance even relative to the original data. Although these results suggest researchers replace PSM with one of the other available matching methods, propensity scores have other productive uses.