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Psychosocial markers of age at onset in bipolar disorder: a machine learning approach
- Sorcha Bolton, Dan W. Joyce, Katherine Gordon-Smith, Lisa Jones, Ian Jones, John Geddes, Kate E. A. Saunders
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- Journal:
- BJPsych Open / Volume 8 / Issue 4 / July 2022
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 18 July 2022, e133
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Background
Bipolar disorder is a chronic and severe mental health disorder. Early stratification of individuals into subgroups based on age at onset (AAO) has the potential to inform diagnosis and early intervention. Yet, the psychosocial predictors associated with AAO are unknown.
AimsWe aim to identify psychosocial factors associated with bipolar disorder AAO.
MethodUsing data from the Bipolar Disorder Research Network UK, we employed least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify psychosocial factors associated with bipolar disorder AAO. Twenty-eight factors were entered into our model, with AAO as our outcome measure.
ResultsWe included 1022 participants with bipolar disorder (μ = 23.0, s.d. ± 9.86) in our model. Six variables predicted an earlier AAO: childhood abuse (β = −0.2855), regular cannabis use in the year before onset (β = −0.2765), death of a close family friend or relative in the 6 months before onset (β = −0.2435), family history of suicide (β = −0.1385), schizotypal personality traits (β = −0.1055) and irritable temperament (β = −0.0685). Five predicted a later AAO: the average number of alcohol units consumed per week in the year before onset (β = 0.1385); birth of a child in the 6 months before onset (β = 0.2755); death of parent, partner, child or sibling in the 6 months before onset (β = 0.3125); seeking work without success for 1 month or more in the 6 months before onset (β = 0.3505) and a major financial crisis in the 6 months before onset (β = 0.4575).
ConclusionsThe identified predictor variables have the potential to help stratify high-risk individuals into likely AAO groups, to inform treatment provision and early intervention.
Contributors
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- Edited by Robert Audi, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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- Book:
- The Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy
- Published online:
- 05 August 2015
- Print publication:
- 27 April 2015, pp ix-xxx
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On the genealogy of nested subsamples from a haploid population
- Ian W. Saunders, Simon Tavaré, G. A. Watterson
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- Journal:
- Advances in Applied Probability / Volume 16 / Issue 3 / September 1984
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 01 July 2016, pp. 471-491
- Print publication:
- September 1984
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For the haploid genetic model of Moran, the joint distribution of the numbers of distinct ancestors of a collection of nested subsamples is derived. These results are shown to apply to the diffusion approximations of a wide variety of other genetic models, including the Wright–Fisher process. The results allow us to relate the ancestries of populations sampled at different times. Analogous results for a line-of-descent process that incorporates the effect of mutation are given. Some results about the ages of alleles in an infinite-alleles model are described.