Key words: sustainable development, land use, land cover, modeling, AHP, DPSIR, region
Abstract
This paper presents methodological aspects of the land use land cover change in the region under sustainable development circumstances on the basis of the ongoing research projects. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) as a useful decision aid method could help to reduce inefficiencies in space-related environmental and socio-economic decision making process on large protected areas, e.g. NATURA 2000, with agriculture and forestry development. MCDA methods differ from conventional methods as they are taking into account a set of objectives and criteria that can be conflictual, multidimensional, incommensurable and incomparable. The information contained in the criteria and concerning the effects of the decision can be uncertain as well as qualitative. For decision making process author proposes include AHP into DPSIR framework.
INTRODUCTION
The main purpose of this paper is to present methodological aspects of multi objective decision making process under sustainable land use planning and highlight priorities and objectives in:
• 7.3 sub-task “Land use land cover change model under change loss potential caused by extreme events” – the research proposal of the State Committee for Scientific Research PBZ-KBN-086/P04/2003 entitled “Meteorological and hydrological extreme events”, started at the end of 2003 in which author is engaged as supervisor of the 7.3 sub-task;
• The EU project “Sustainable agriculture and forestry in large protected areas (e.g. NATURA 2000) with regard to regional economic development” – acronym SAFE, (FP6-2003-SSP-3, Scientific support to EU policies, Call for STREP (Specific Targeted Research Projects), CA (Coordination Actions), and SSA (Specific Support Actions) for various policies: Sustainable management of natural resources, health, biosafety & crisis management, economic potential & social cohesion), started at the end of 2003, in which author is engaged as supervisor of the Polish team, and
• The authors’ habilitation thesis entitled “Theories and land use land cover change models under sustainable development circumstances” (university research project), ended at 2004.
All these projects are linked with the common aim: improving of the land use land cover change methods under strong restriction conditions caused by sustainable land use rules and of the global problems such as reformed Common Agriculture Policy (CAP), global climatic change and ongoing negotiating with World Trade Organization (WTO).