There is little question that stock options have value, but there is considerable question as to how stock options should be valued. Persons studying the valuation question and writing in business periodicals have tied the value of the stock option to the expected or the actual appreciation in the value of the stock.

Professor Solow's article, “Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function,” now virtually classic, has made a great impact on economists generally and in the last few years the subject has received unprecedented attention in economic literature. The reason for this extraordinary emphasis on “Technical Change” has been the conclusion—in Solow's above-mentioned article—based on statistical evidence, that gross output per man-hour in the United States nonfarm economy doubled over the period 1909–1949, “with 87.5 percent of the increase attributable to technical change and the remaining 12.5 percent to increased use of capital.”

The paper provides sufficient conditions under which a nonrandom economic variable specific to some asset (the dependent variable) can be represented as a linear combination of the betas of some random characteristics of the asset (the independent variables) with some economy-wide factors. This generalizes Ross' APT that proves the above in the case where the dependent variables are expected returns and the independent variables are returns. This generalization will provide a theoretical basis for many existing multibeta relationships beyond the setting of asset pricing models and, thus, motivate their wider use in empirical and theoretical research.

Controversy over the implications of debt and the rationale belying capital structure has seemingly come to rest upon a plateau defined by Miller's equilibrium analysis of aggregate corporate debt [10]. In “Debt and Taxes,” Miller reasserts his contention that whether capital is obtained through debt or equity has no bearing on the market value of the firm and is, therefore, irrelevant--a notion which has long been accepted with some reluctance by the finance academe. When the Modigliani-Miller model was first offered some 20 years ago [11], it was accompanied by a set of assumptions which portrayed the world of corporate finance in such malleable terms as to make the irrelevancy propositions palatable. Adaptation of this theoretical model (by its originators) to its secular counterpart through the imposition of corporate taxes [12] brought about a reassuring reversal of the irrelevancy doctrine, but left in its stead the disconcerting prescription to maximize firm value by financing exclusively via debt. Consideration of tax effects at the personal level by Farrar and Selwyn [7] marked the next concession to reality by capital structure theorists. Instead of alienating the original model still further from observed corporate behavior, this step provided a means of reconciling the overwhelming advantage of debt financing at the corporate level with the ultimate after-tax “consumption possibilities” afforded to individual investors. Miller's analysis explains that corporations are forced to “gross up” nominal interest rates to attract bondholders who must be compensated for their personal tax liability [10]. Potential increases in market value due to the taxdeductibility of interest payments are exhausted in the competitive drive toward equilibrium—at which point there are no gains from leverage. The sanctity of the irrelevance theorem thus appears to have been restored at the aggregate level.

In a recent paper the net present value (NPV) accept-reject decision rule, invoking the conventional definition of expected net cash flows of a finite, uneven character along with a weighted average cost of capital, was derived from the condition of shareholder wealth maximization (Beranek [2]). Since the entire textbook-NPV expression was established–its logical form, the content of its variables, and the implied specification of its parameters–this has served as a partial rescue of textbook approaches to capital budgeting, approaches which had heretofore rested on an intuitive basis. But attempts to rescue textbook treatments of mutually exclusive (ME) choices and capital rationing must fail. Explaining why they must fail, and developing what we shall denote as the AB alternative solution, is the object of this paper.

We show that merger announcement returns account for virtually all of the measured size premium. An empirical proxy for ex ante takeover exposure positively and robustly relates to cross-sectional expected returns. The relation between size and expected returns becomes positive or insignificant, rather than negative, conditional on this takeover characteristic. Asset pricing models that include a factor based on the takeover characteristic outperform otherwise similar models that include the conventional size factor. We conclude that the takeover factor should replace the conventional size factor in benchmark asset pricing models.

We study household credit responses to Hurricane Harvey using new, geographically granular data on credit cards, mortgages, and flooding. Estimates from a differences-in-differences design that exploits the flooding gradient show that affected households only borrow at low-interest rates, often using promotional (zero interest) cards and that they quickly pay down balances. We also document that take-up of forbearance (borrowing by missing mortgage payments without penalty) increases with flooding. These results are attenuated in floodplains, particularly in structures subject by code to physical hardening. Our results indicate that credit acts as a substitute for the lack of physical hardening.

This paper studies the optimal consumption and portfolio problem of an investor with recursive preferences who is subject to time-varying margin requirements. The level of the requirements at each moment is determined by contemporaneous volatility of returns, which is stochastic and may have jumps. I show that the nonstandard hedging demand produced by margin requirements increases with their persistence and volatility. However, for realistic values of parameters, the hedging demand is small even in the presence of jumps, and contemporaneous jumps in prices have a much stronger effect on optimal portfolio than jumps in constraints.

Using random H-1B visa lotteries as a natural experiment, we find that firms respond to shortages of high-skilled workers by acquiring firms that employ such workers. The effect is stronger among firms with high human capital and more senior workforces, firms facing tight labor markets and legal barriers to poaching workers, and firms lacking foreign affiliates. The acquired workers are highly educated, sharing skills and occupations similar to those of the acquirer’s existing workers. Our findings suggest skilled labor is an important driver of acquisitions and acquiring is an effective means of obtaining skilled labor.

This study investigates whether the management earnings forecasts of Republican and Democratic CEOs differ due to systematic differences in their information disclosure preferences. We find that Republican CEOs prefer a less asymmetric information environment than Democrat CEOs, and thus make more frequent, timelier, and more accurate disclosures than Democrat CEOs. Results using the propensity score matched sample and difference-in-differences analysis show that our results are unlikely to be driven by potential endogeneity. Our results are robust to controlling for various CEO characteristics and are stronger for firms with higher levels of institutional ownership and litigation risk.

I show that cash distributions through cash mergers, dividend payments, and stock buybacks are, in principle, similar to investor fund flows in generating demand for investable assets. Abnormal returns on certain assets can be forecasted because delegated investors predictably reinvest cash returns toward certain holdings. Novel measures of stock-level demand constructed using proportional reinvestments by mutual funds predict abnormal returns and issuances in noncash-paying stocks. These results highlight an alternative and substantial source of price fluctuations in the cross section of equities.

U.S. multinational enterprises repatriated over $300 billion under the 2004 tax holiday. The repatriated funds can improve debt financing environment of nonrepatriating firms, especially those that are financially constrained. We document that such an externality of the tax holiday increases debt financing and consequently investments for financially constrained nonrepatriating firms relative to less constrained nonrepatriating firms. Using private loan market data, we further confirm a link from repatriated funds to increased debt financing for financially constrained nonrepatriating firms. Overall, the 2004 tax holiday appears to have benefited the U.S. economy through its positive externality on the debt market.

Corporate bonds’ book-to-market ratios predict returns computed from transaction prices. Senior bonds (even investment grade) with the 20% highest ratios outperform the 20% lowest by 3%–4% annually after non-parametrically controlling for numerous liquidity, default, microstructure, and priced-risk attributes: yield-to-maturity, bid–ask spread, duration/maturity, credit spread/rating, past returns, coupon, size, age, industry, and structural model equity hedges. Spreads for all-bond samples are larger. An efficient bond market would not exhibit the observed decay in the ratio’s predictive efficacy with implementation delays, small yield-to-maturity spreads, or similar-sized spreads across bonds with differing risks. A methodological innovation avoids liquidity filters and censorship that bias returns.

Using detailed data on U.S. households’ locations, employment, and financial portfolios, we document that individuals employed in locally clustered industries are more likely to invest in risky assets. This pattern is strongest among individuals with high labor income, employed in skilled occupations, and with strong cognitive skills. Our overall evidence suggests the relation between industry clusters and investment decisions is best explained by clusters enhancing human capital among local industry workers, in turn amplifying their effective risk tolerance. Our findings highlight the important role of local labor market composition in generating household portfolio patterns within and across geographies.

Machine learning-based stock market beta estimators outperform established benchmark models both statistically and economically. Analyzing the predictability of time-varying market betas of U.S. stocks, we document that machine learning-based estimators produce the lowest forecast and hedging errors. They also help to create better market-neutral anomaly strategies and minimum variance portfolios. Among the various techniques, random forests perform the best overall. Model complexity is highly time-varying. Historical stock market betas, turnover, and size are the most important predictors. Compared to linear regressions, allowing for nonlinearity and interactions significantly improves predictive performance.

In a rich, calibrated life-cycle model, we show that well-designed mandatory pension plans significantly improve the welfare of individuals procrastinating on savings, and even improve most rational individuals’ welfare through a return tax advantage and fair annuitization. For a group of heterogeneous savers, in terms of preferences and sophistication, the best plan has contributions of 10% of income from age 30, a glidepath investment strategy, payouts following a variable lifelong annuity, and options to choose a different investment strategy and to modify the annuitization feature. This plan generates an average welfare gain of $175,000 per individual.

We show that the dividend growth rate implied by the options market is informative about i) the expected dividend growth rate and ii) the expected dividend risk premium. We model the expected dividend risk premium and explore its implications for the predictability of dividend growth and stock market returns. Correcting for the expected dividend risk premium strengthens the evidence for the predictability of dividend growth and stock market returns both in and out of sample. Economically, a market-timing investor who accounts for the time-varying expected dividend risk premium realizes an additional utility gain of 2.02% per year.

Two general methods of computing the rate of return on common stock are being discussed widely. These methods are the internal rate of return and the geometric mean of the annual rates of return. The Gordon-Shapiro formulation, , is the best known model of the former type.

Bradford Cornell's paper develops a small, but important result for the literature on currency of denomination of international trade contracts. The selection of a contract currency determines which party will bear exchange risk in addition to inflation risk. The contract currency problem in international trade is therefore closely related to other contracting issues, such as the pricing of nominal bonds under inflation uncertainty. More graphically, exchange risk can be illustrated by a difference in the units ofaccount of income and consumption streams. For example, if an agent produces only corn and consumes only wheat, he faces an exchange risk if the price of wheat relative to cornis uncertain.

Recovering an Asset's Implied PDF from Option Prices: An Application to Crude Oil During the Gulf Crisis William R. Melick and Charles P. Thomas Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol. 32, 1997, pp. 91-115