Seasonal price premiums have been proposed as a means of dampening the highly seasonal patterns of milk production in Florida. A Markov decision bio-economic model of the breeding and replacement decisions was solved via stochastic dynamic programming and used to analyze the potential supply response to seasonal price premiums. The results of the analysis suggest that the seasonal milk supply in Florida is highly price inelastic.

It is appropriate as we enter a new century that we reflect on the past one since our profession is nearly 100 years old: the American Association of Farm Economics was formally created in 1910. “Savvy through one hundred years of progress and experience” is one description that comes to mind. “Geriatric” is another word that might fit. I intend to highlight some broad topics that have occupied agricultural economists' teaching and research over the past 100 years, to reflect in a little more detail about our thoughts over the past 12 years as revealed in the presidential addresses at AAEA and SAEA annual meetings, to make some rather terse comments about current important issues as they relate to the issues of the past, and to conclude with some advice for the younger members of our profession and our association that may be of value in the new century. I emphasize the word may, because I am much less certain about the wisdom of my beliefs today than if I had been given the opportunity to give this talk 18 or even 11 years ago.

We investigated the environmental impacts of alternative cultural practices within a watershed under different water quality standards. We used experimental data on nutrient runoff to determine the optimal amount of broiler litter application in hay production in Louisiana. To compensate for the lack of experimental data, we used biophysical simulation models to find the optimal combination of agricultural best-management practices in a watershed in Mississippi. The results indicated that stricter environmental standards lower total profit potential and litter utilization.

Produce that does not meet sellers’ esthetic standards may be redirected to alternative uses or wasted, but consumer trends indicate potential marketability of blemished produce. We conduct a nonhypothetical experimental auction to elicit consumer willingness-to-pay (WTP) for produce of varying degrees of blemish and test whether valuations are affected by (1) information on food waste resulting from grocery stores’ esthetic standards and (2) additional information on the environmental impacts of food waste. WTP for blemished produce increases as consumers become informed, but the information effects vary by blemishing degree. Market simulations indicate that introducing blemished produce can increase retailer revenue.

The dominant market where information is discovered plays the role of price leader providing substantial market information to other markets. This study investigates the dynamic relationships of 30 cattle markets across regions, cattle types, and cash/futures markets. The comparison of many markets, using an error correction model, is accomplished with the introduction of a tournament with a hierarchical cluster analysis, which allows us to conclude that the leading price for the U.S. cattle markets is discovered in the futures markets for both feeder and fed cattle.

The legalization of hemp in the United States (U.S.) has created increased interest from agricultural and non-agricultural entities seeking to establish/expand hemp production and processing. As these entities begin to locate their production and processing operations, there is a potential for nearby residents to have concerns about these efforts. Using an online survey of residents from the southeastern U.S., concern levels and potential externalities associated with hemp production and processing were evaluated. Results show a majority of residents are concerned about hemp production and processing locating nearby with the externalities varying from the potential for illegal activity to environmental concerns.

Precision irrigation is a potential viable strategy for water use reductions on golf courses by making variable or site-specific irrigation applications. A group of US golf course superintendents were surveyed to examine whether and how superintendents’ risk preferences (attitudes) affect the adoption decisions of precision irrigation technologies on their golf courses. Under the prospect theory (PT) framework, a lottery experiment was used to elicit the measures of three risk attitudes, that is, risk curvature, probability distortion, and loss aversion. Using these three measures and other questions in the survey, we found that risk curvature has a significant positive effect on the precision irrigation technologies adoption on golf courses, while probability distortion affects the adoption negatively. Compared to the golf course in low precipitation areas, superintendents’ risk attitudes are more likely to affect the precision irrigation technologies adoption in the golf course in high precipitation areas. Additionally, risk curvature dominates the adoption decisions for newer technologies, while probability distortion dominates the older technologies adoption decisions. Our research enriches the literature on the decision-making behaviors of managers by considering how probability distortion, a factor typically ignored by other studies, affects technology adoption decisions and adds to the literature on examining the technology adoption behaviors under PT by focusing on golf course superintendents, a group that has not been studied.

Using a production function approach, we estimate that the economic value of biotic pollination to Georgia’s agriculture increased from $425 million in 2009 to $488 million in 2017 in real terms. We perform spatial analysis to reveal county-level spatial patterns and temporal trends in that value. Using a unique set of pollinator survey data, we also compare the locations of biotic pollinators to the areas they bring the most economic value to, which provides insights on the variation in the dependency of the crop mix to pollination services.

Pesticide handling is a critical component of many food supply chains yet labor markets for pesticide handlers are little studied. This study uses data from the U.S. national survey to show that relative to other farmworkers, pesticide handlers get paid 15% more. To understand this premium, matching techniques are used to identify workers who are observationally equivalent in every way except pesticide handling. Using these methods, approximately half of the wage premium can be related back to observable characteristics, including crop type, geographic location, legal work authorization, education, experience, and other personal characteristics.

Resurgent cotton production compels better acreage forecasts for planning seed, chemical, and other input requirements. Structural models describe leading acreage response indicators, and forecasts are compared to time-series models. Cotton price, loan rate, deficiency payments, lagged corn acreage, the PIK program, and previous cotton yield significantly influence cotton acreage response.

Self-employment taxes, “effective” marginal tax rates, and discounting schemes which allow for alternative purchase and disposal dates of machinery are incorporated into the traditional optimal replacement interval model. Empirical results indicate that these alterations decrease the optimal replacement intervals by up to three years from those obtained with traditional modeling assumptions. Inclusion of self-employment taxes decreases both the penalty attached to early replacement and the net present value (cost) of tractor ownership.

Whether or not privatization facilitates rural development depends upon what rural development means. In practice, rural development often is the result of a struggle between rent defenders and rent seekers. A positivist concept of rural development is proposed, and the institutions of public choice are examined to determine how they might influence privatization decisions. The conclusion is that whether or not privatization improves efficiency of adjustment in rural economies depends upon the specifics of political deals required to achieve a particular act of privatization.

The effects of cropland slope, distance to surface water, farmers' risk attitudes, and farmers' nitrogen (N) fertilizer applications on potential N delivery to streams and costs of reducing N delivery were evaluated for a representative Virginia peanut-cotton farm. Target MOTAD and generalized stochastic dominance were used to select preferred plans for different levels of risk aversion. Costs of reducing N delivery were lower on farms where fields were located close to surface water, where N was overapplied relative to extension fertilizer recommendations, and where the operator was risk averse. Cropland slope had less effect on cost of reducing N delivery relative to other factors.

In recent years, extremely variable price movements have caused a high degree of price risk in the cattle industry. Cattle producers who chose to accept this price risk at the correct time had extraordinary gains, whereas those who accepted this risk at the improper time had returns below cost of production. Hedging offers the cattle producer an excellent opportunity to transfer a portion of the price risk to another party. Selective transfer of the risk can both increase the magnitude of returns and decrease their variance [1, 2, 4]. The family of technical tools called oscillators, one of the most useful tools employed by commodity traders [6, p. 34], was used to develop hedging strategies for feeder cattle.

The present paper examines the importance that efficient resource use may have for cotton growers under the current EU policy regime. To that end, input-oriented technical and scale efficiency scores for a sample of 172 cotton-growing farms are empirically quantified. The results suggest that cotton farms in the sample are not efficient mainly due to the nature of the policy regime governing the sector throughout EU. By becoming efficient, the co-responsibility levy will be reduced by 18.3% and farms may increase their profits by 50.1% on the average.

Because level and variability of the basis at the time a hedge is lifted affects level and variability of returns from hedging [1, 4], an understanding of the determination of basis values is important both to hedgers and to those with regulatory responsibilities. This analysis focuses on the determination of par-delivery-point basis values during the delivery period of a live-cattle futures contract; i.e., on determination of the difference between futures price and cash price for a lot of live cattle that meets all futures contract specifications (including place and time of delivery). Results of the analysis suggest that, during the delivery period, par-delivery-point basis values for live cattle frequently differ from zero by more than the transaction costs associated with arbitrage, and that fluctuations in basis values may be partly explained by trader expectations and by risk associated with returns to arbitrage.

Agricultural sustainability is an evolving process ever-seeking a balance between society's economic, environmental and social demands. Governmental policy and regulations while attempting to correct adverse externalities, have at times within themselves created adverse externalities. Failures often lie within the policies themselves, but poor coordination among government agencies is also at fault. This paper outlines a number of coordination issues and attempts to show how the empowerment of communities through ecosystem management is a partial solution to environmental degradation.

This study provides a road map for creating and operating a student-managed investment fund (SMIF) as an experiential learning opportunity in commodity market analysis. We describe the reasons for implementing a SMIF and the benefits it offers relative to traditional simulation approaches. We outline the necessary steps for starting a SMIF and explain its organizational structure. We discuss a SMIF’s operation and main activities, which include recruitment, training, trading, and interaction with the client and alumni. The implications of participating in a SMIF are reviewed within a cost-benefit framework.

Using a double-hurdle approach, we assess factors associated with the extent of participation in the rice market with data for small-scale farmers drawn from a nationally representative dataset. The results suggest that larger endowments and assets, animal farming and commercialization, and alternative off-farm income make farmers less likely to participate. Conversely, having access to credit, larger farm sizes, and being part of a farmers’ association all increase the likelihood of participation. Farms with better technological resources are also those with higher sales volumes. Further understanding market participation dynamics should prove useful for deriving evidence-based policy recommendations to strengthen this Bolivian sector.