In this study, the effects of an export subsidy for cotton are analyzed using a linear elasticity model. The study explicitly addresses the interaction of current domestic policies with the proposed export subsidy. An export subsidy may be a successful method of reducing the government costs of the cotton program.

The monthly and quarterly price determination processes for 31–40 and 21–25 size classes of raw-headless shrimp were examined to determine price leadership between market levels. Causal relationships were assessed using Haugh-Pierce, Sims, and Granger methods. Price models at the retail, wholesale, and exvessel market levels were estimated. Economic factors analyzed were income, prices of competing products, landings and imports of raw headless shrimp, total retail supply, beginning stocks, and marketing costs.

Monthly prices generally exhibited unidirectional causality from exvessel to retail price. Quarterly prices were determined interdependently among market levels. Price responses between market levels were found to be symmetric with beginning stocks, landings, and imports of own-size shrimp the most important determinants of price.

We utilize a treatment effects model to examine if there are differences in costs/profits for manure-using corn producers versus non-users. We find that manure users have lower peracre operating costs via reductions in fertilizer and soil conditioner costs; however, the use of manure reduces grain yields and ultimately leads to no difference in profit. Separate results indicate that manure-use restrictions do not affect costs or profits; thus policies could be in place to regulate manure usage without impacting the costs/profit structure of the farm.

Solid wastes that are residuals of production and consumption have steadily increased in quantity in recent years. Historically, many of these residuals have been discarded into the environment which appeared to have the capacity to handle them. However, now it is widely believed that these residuals are responsible for the degradation of environment quality by increasing air, water, and land pollution. Ecological considerations have increased the complexity of handling solid wastes and have stimulated the need for alternative methods of managing various types of wastes.

Local and municipal authorities and private industry provide waste collection and disposal services. Municipal services are generally financed out of taxation revenues, so it is in the public's interest to have an efficient, cost-minimizing operation at some publicly acceptable standard of quality of service.

Classical approaches to the economics of pest management have focused almost exclusively on single-species models. This study develops and implements a methodology with which to evaluate multi-species, non-stochastic, managerial decisions subject to stochastic elements of the plant-insect system. Multi-species insect management strategies (combinations of scouting interval, threshold value, and choice of pesticide) are analyzed using a physiological mechanistic soybean plant growth model coupled to three insect population dynamics models. Preliminary results indicate that net returns are maximized and variance is reduced with lower thresholds and more frequent scouting than current recommendations.

The recent lumber trade war between Canada and the United States deals with Canadian stumpage policies, Canada's log export controls, and U.S. retaliatory duty. This study determines the appropriate level of U.S. countervailing duty (CVD) by employing a vertically interrelated log–lumber model. The theoretical results show that the U.S. CVD can be greater (will be less) than the Canadian subsidy for a vertically related log–lumber market (for lumber market only). Empirical results support the theoretical findings in that the U.S. CVD for the log–lumber market (lumber market alone) is 1.55 (0.91) times the Canadian subsidy.

With this study, we investigate the effects of changes in economic factors on body weight by constructing a utility theoretic model. The model is empirically estimated by combining data on individuals' body weight, demographic and physical activity information, and state-level measures pertaining to the prices of food away from home, food at home, and wages. By combining these data sources, we aim to estimate directly the weight effects of price and income changes. The empirical analysis suggests that decreasing the price of food at home could decrease body weight, a finding which has important public policy implications.

Variability in feed prices and crop yields are important sources of risk to dairy farmers. A simulation model of a representative dairy farm was used to evaluate crop insurance and hedging as risk management strategies. These strategies lowered expected net returns but also reduced risk. The preferred set of strategies at lower levels of risk aversion included hedging and crop insurance, although a base scenario in which no risk management strategies were employed was also efficient. The preferred strategy at higher levels of risk aversion was a combination of crop insurance and hedging.

Hedging is one of the most important risk management decisions that farmers make and has a potentially large role in the level of profit eventually earned from farming. Using panel data from a survey of Georgia farmers that recorded their hedging decisions for 4 years on four crops, we examine the role of habit, demographics, farm characteristics, and information sources on the hedging decisions made by 57 different farmers. We find that the role of habit varies widely and that estimation of a single habit effect suffers from aggregation bias. Thus, modeling farmer-level heterogeneity in the examination of habit and hedging is crucial.

We investigate the determinants of organic farming in the United States. State-level data show that the organic farming sector has grown over the last decade, but growth has been very heterogeneous with few states accounting for most of the growth. Further analyses of county data reveal that favorable natural amenities, water for irrigation, and government payments have a positive effect on most measures of organic farming used here. Results further point out that organic farming operations are more popular among young farmers. Adjacency to metro areas is also an important determinant for the number of organic operations. Organic farming is more important for the agricultural sector of the areas that are somewhat remote but that does not appear to be the case for very remote rural areas.

The study applies parametric and nonparametric estimation methods to determine hedonic prices of rice quality attributes, and a partial equilibrium model to determine the payoff to investing in quality improvement in five countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Results indicate that consumers are willing to pay price premiums for head rice, slender grains, peak viscosity, parboiled rice, and rice sold in urban markets. However, they strongly discount amylose content, rice with impurities and imported rice. Investing in quality improvement through amylose content reduction leads to net welfare gains with a benefit-cost ratio of 47.86 and internal rate of return of 90%.

Declining domestic cigarette consumption, increased global competition, and loss of import restrictions indicate decreased demand for U.S. flue-cured tobacco. The effects of 10% declines in domestic and export demand are evaluated under a policy of reducing quota to maintain price versus a policy of allowing price to fall to maintain quota. Changes in prices, quantities, revenues, and economic rents are simulated. Losses to nonfarming quota owners are minimized under a policy of price maintenance, while losses in revenues to tobacco-producing areas are minimized by a policy of quota maintenance. Aggregate losses to tobacco growers are greater under a policy of quota maintenance.

Risk has long been recognized as potentially important in determining agricultural supply. However, supply response models have either incorporated risk in an ad hoc manner or not at all. A rational expectations supply response model incorporating price risk is developed, an estimation procedure suggested, and an empirical example presented.

Incorporation of futures markets into the theory of the firm under uncertainty has received considerable attention in risk management. A theoretical model of optimal firm decisions in cash and futures markets considering price, production, and financial risks is presented. Production and marketing strategies for corn and soybeans in Georgia and Illinois are analyzed to determine the optimal amount of futures contracting which may be a hedge or a speculative position. A partial hedge is optimal for most situations for risk averse producers when the amount hedged is variable. With fixed quantity transactions, speculative and cash positions, but not hedging, tend to be E-V efficient.

Hypothetical surveys are commonly used to elicit consumer behavior to guide product development, marketing, and labeling strategies. However, despite the prevalence of surveys in consumer food studies, previous work has not assessed the relationship between hypothetical responses and actual consumer behavior in real-world purchase situations. We explore whether attributes cited by consumers in surveys as being important to them when making decisions indeed factor into their product decision process in real-world markets. Evidence from a point of sale study of 702 pork purchasers indicates that there is a strong correspondence between hypothetical survey ratings and actual shopping behavior.

The opportunity to present a presidential address provides a rare and unique opportunity. It is perhaps the only time one gets to speak to the profession without your material either being reviewed and corrected before its presentation, or reviewed and corrected by a discussant after your presentation. Indeed the freedom that a presidential address offers takes a little getting used to, but it provides a wonderful opportunity to express one's biases. To you, the members of the profession who took the risk to allow me this opportunity, let me say thank you. I have chosen to use this opportunity to address a topic that I think provides one of the most exciting and potentially productive challenges our profession will face in our lifetimes, that is “The Dawning of the Age of Dynamic Theory.”

This paper considers how the welfare of U.S. sugar producers can be affected by the use of production controls in the presence of rising sugar imports and falling sugar prices, taking into account the negative externalities associated with U.S. sugar production. Even if production controls are used, producer welfare can be affected negatively under rising imports.

This study examines the trade-off between agricultural production and groundwater contamination potential for ten potential herbicide cancellations. Theoretical and empirical models are developed for estimating losses in consumer and producer benefits in the agricultural commodity market and changes in groundwater quality. Using com and soybean production in the southeastern Coastal Plain as a study area, the analysis concludes that (1) effects of herbicide cancellations on groundwater quality can be very significant; (2) a cancellation does not guarantee groundwater quality improvement; (3) effects of a multiple cancellation are different from the summation of the effects of independent cancellations; and (4) weed density has a very strong effect on losses to farmers and consumers from cancellations, but output demand and supply elasticities do not.

Agricultural water use is becoming an issue in much of the South due to population growth. Results of projects evaluating the impacts of conservation strategies aimed at reallocating or extending the life of water supplies are being met with great skepticism by stakeholder groups. In order to gain acceptance of results, it is essential that stakeholder groups be involved from the beginning in the identification of potential water conservation strategies and be kept informed throughout the project. The objective of this paper is to review previous attempts at involving stakeholders and the methodology currently being employed in the Ogallala Aquifer Project.