The success of the Boll Weevil Eradication (BWE) Program is believed to be one factor underlying the recent increase in cotton acreage in the Southeast. We find weak evidence that the initial, eradication phase of the BWE program decreases cotton acreage, and strong evidence that the second, maintenance phase of the program increases acreage. The full benefits associated with a BWE program may not become apparent until acreage adjustments occur, four to five years after program initiation. Our results indicate that for a representative sample county neglecting acreage effects may lead to underestimation of BWE program net benefits by 9 percent-12 percent.

The marketing system for cattle in the United States has evolved with shifts from delivery to large terminal centers, to more decentralized markets. Because of innovations in transportation and processing technology, these structural changes have created a need for greater vertical coordination between different stages in the cattle marketing channels (Rhodes, p. 174; Sporleder, p. 101). Improved coordination requires appropriate market information about product supplies and the form of cattle preferred by buyers (Purcell, 1973, 1980).

Least cost feed mix by linear programming (LP) is a standard economic analysis in the poultry industry. A significant body of nutrition knowledge is now contained in the constraint set of industry LP models. This knowledge might be merged into an improved economic model that contains production response information. Analysis using a quadratic programming model indicated that a leading broiler firm could have improved economic efficiency by increasing protein density and reducing energy density of broiler finisher feed. If applicable industry wide, similar savings could be as high as $120 million per year.

This article examines the impact of Bt corn adoption in the Philippines using an econometric approach that addresses simultaneity, selection, and censoring problems. Although previous literature emphasizes the importance of simultaneity and selection problems, this is the first study that addresses the issue of censoring in estimating the effects of Bt corn adoption at the farm in a developing country context. We show that Bt corn adoption provides modest but statistically significant increases in farm yields and profits. Furthermore, our results provide some evidence of inference errors that can potentially arise when censoring in the pesticide application variable is ignored in the estimation procedures.

Predominance of production and marketing contracts in the broiler industry suggests a traditional analysis of price relationships might no longer be appropriate. In this study, markets for broiler cuts are defined as spatial. Results of a vector autoregressive regression analysis of monthly USDA data from 1987 to 2000 verify the price relationship between white meat and whole broiler prices. Price shocks in the boneless skinless breast market have a greater effect than dark meat shocks, suggesting this market is most important in price transmission. These results will assist industry participants to form more effective marketing and pricing strategies, thus adding efficiency to the market.

United States certified organic and conventional dairy farms are compared on the basis of economic, financial, and technological measures using dairy data from the 2016 USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey. A stochastic production frontier model using an input distance function framework is estimated for U.S. dairy farms to examine technical efficiency and returns to scale (RTS) of farms of both systems and by multiple size categories. Financial and economic measures such as net return on assets and input costs, as well as technological adoption measures are compared by system and size. For both systems, size is the major determinant of competitiveness based on selected measures of productivity and RTS.

We use models incorporating the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from remote sensing satellites to improve soybean yield predictions in 10 major producing states in the United States. Unlike traditional methods that assume an ordinary least squares model applies to all observations, we allow for global flexibility in the relationship between NDVI and soybean yield by using the flexible Fourier transform (FFT) model. FFT results confirm that there is a nonlinear response of soybean yield to NDVI over the growing season. Out-of-sample predictions indicate that allowing for global flexibility with the FFT improves the predictions in time-series prediction and forecasting.

Combinations of futures and options contracts on milk and feed were simulated to determine their influence on a representative dairy farm's ability to meet cash flow requirements and reduce the variance of net income. Compared with the reference scenario of selling milk and procuring inputs on a monthly cash basis, the risk management activities did not result in a significant change in either the level or variance of net farm income. The results suggest that on average the current marketing procedure of monthly cash milk pricing and monthly feed purchases (and pricing) produces a strong built-in natural hedge for dairy farmers.

Estimates of demand parameters for disaggregate finfish and shellfish products were obtained using scanner data from a retail food firm in Houston. Demand for the various products was elastic (except for oysters); in general, cross-price effects play a statistically significant role in pounds sold per 1000 customers. Own-advertisement effects are important, but cross-advertisement effects are generally marginal. Seasonality is a key factor in purchases of most finfish and shellfish products.

One objective of the Food Stamp Program (FSP) is to supplement food expenditures of low income households to enhance the household's ability to provide nutritionally adequate diets. A household may consist of any person, or group of persons, who purchase, store and prepare food. Program eligibility is based on net household income, total assets and household size. Eligible households purchase coupons which are used in retail food outlets. Households of equal size receive coupon allotments of equal purchasing value, but the cash purchase requirement varies with net income. Bonus stamps represent the difference between the purchase requirement and the coupon allotment value.

This study sought to determine whether monthly revisions of U.S. Department of Agriculture current-year corn and soybean yield forecasts are correlated and whether this correlation is associated with crop size. An ex-ante measure of crop size based on percent deviation of the current estimate from out-of-sample trend is used in efficiency tests based on the Nordhaus framework for fixed-event forecasts. Results show that available information about crop size is generally efficiently incorporated in these forecasts. Thus, although this pattern may appear obvious to market analysts in hindsight, it is largely based on new information and hence difficult to anticipate.

We detail the rewards and barriers to participating in multidisciplinary research (MDR) using a 2011 survey of applied economists at U.S. universities. We compare these findings with an earlier 1993 survey to assess if rewards and barriers have changed over time. Different administrative levels of U.S. universities are sending contradictory signals regarding rewards from MDR. External funding agencies convey positive signals. Although the scope and breadth of questions addressed by applied economists are changing over time, institutional incentives and reward structures are not keeping pace with these changes. Progress toward adapting to new professional demands has been slow.

We explore the economic merits of on-farm water storage with tailwater recovery systems to reduce aquifer depletion in a region with expanding irrigated acreage and substantial off-season precipitation. Gains are substantial on a broad scale and long planning horizon, including more than $4 billion in producer surplus, 5 million acre-feet of conserved groundwater, and land capitalization of $24 per acre. Sensitivity analyses provide insights with respect to the impact of discount rates, rainfed returns, return flows, and aquifer recharge rates. Results can inform stakeholders about the optimal allocation of funds directed at agricultural practice adoption and agricultural water investments.

Little is known about the impact of corn and energy prices on the profitability of irrigating corn in Tennessee. We evaluated the probability of a positive net present value (NPV) for center-pivot irrigation in Tennessee corn production. Three corn price series were employed to evaluate the effects of the shift in corn prices on the feasibility of irrigation. The recent rise in corn prices increased the probability of NPV being positive for irrigation investment. Future corn prices will need to remain high for investment in center-pivot irrigation to remain profitable under Tennessee growing conditions.

Firm operators continually manage multiple sources of risk. In an application to cattle feedlot operations, our objective is to determine if producers view output price and animal health risks separately or jointly. We conduct a survey with a choice experiment placing operators in forward looking, decision-making scenarios, and capture information on past risk management approaches. Evidence regarding a relationship between animal health and output price risk mitigation is mixed and depends on the decision being made. Combined, these results provide new insight into how managers approach multiple risks when facing resource constraints.

A set of ordinary and inverse demand systems for U.S. quarterly meat consumption is estimated for use to measure the effects of U.S. meat trade on consumers' welfare. The approach is useful to incorporate all direct- and cross-commodity effects into price forecasting and the Hicksian compensating variation measurement.

Recreational pursuits have been discussed by economists and others involved in the planning of public sector investment since early in the 1930s. This discussion developed from a peripheral concern to an intense interest as legislative legitimacy was gained for the use of recreational benefit measures to justify public sector investment in multiple purpose river developments. The history of recreation benefit assessment has been adequately discussed elsewhere. In this paper, the justification for inclusion of recreation benefits in economic analyses is not addressed. However, it is worth noting that emphasis has shifted over time from an almost exclusive concern with recreation opportunities provided by development activities to an emphasis upon the recreation opportunities lost in that process as well.

We reassess the effect of new information in the Hogs and Pigs Reports (HPR) focusing on announcements' rationality and alternative surprises. HPR announcements are irrational estimates of final estimates, and market expectations are irrational estimates of HPR numbers. Using the market's best forecast and incorporating final estimates, we modify conventional information measures. Despite differences as large as 33 cents/cwt in price response, findings suggest there is little to differentiate among surprise measures. Regardless, the message that HPR provides new information to the market is strongly supported. On balance, marketing (breeding) information has a larger effect on short-term (long-term) price changes.

Conservation reserve program (CRP) payments amount to several billion dollars annually. Payments are allocated to both remove land from production and to help farmers pay for conservation improvements. However, research examining whether farmers increase their utility with CRPs is limited. This paper uses simulation analysis and certainty equivalents to compare farming income to payments under the CRP. Farming income is a combination of crop production and government payments as specified in the 2002 Farm Bill. This analysis focuses on farms in three different counties in Kentucky. Results indicate that CRPs are good choices for many farmers.

Entrepreneurs innovate their individual business organizations not only to deal with production and price risks, but also to cope with the risk of sanctions or penalties imposed by society's laws and regulations. More specifically, labor-intensive agricultural firms, faced with potentially large fines for violation of immigration and labor laws, increasingly modify the organization of their firms by shifting the management of routine seasonal labor jobs to independent farm labor contractors. The use of labor contracting is further intensified because of the effectiveness of labor contractors in the recruitment of illegal aliens.