Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-rdxmf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-29T13:33:25.088Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Appendix 2 - Wild Cards

from APPENDICES

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 October 2015

Get access

Summary

Wild cards are normally defined as low-probability, but high-impact events. They are used to discuss future events which are unlikely to happen, but if they do, the repercussions will be dramatic. They cannot be ruled out of any futuristic study, but the analyst and the reader must bear in mind that we are talking about low-probability events — a bit like thinking the unthinkable. Typical wild cards from the past would have been, prior to 1979, China's change into a market economy; or prior to the 11 September attacks, a coordinated terrorist attack on the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, the White House, and the U.S. Congress.

Currently some of the global wild cards floating around are enumerated in The Futurist issue of spring 2009.

  1. • Spiritual paradigm shift sweeps the world, sponsored by the use of the Internet and the growing complexity of connections and dependency.

  2. • Science is wrong: it is rapid cooling, not global warming, that is the biggest manifestation of climate change. New scientific evidence suggests that the major terrestrial driver of global climate patterns may be wind over the oceans. If the world faces cooling, instead of global warming, not only would a whole string of high profile policies have to be rethought, but confidence in science would fall dramatically, altering societal structures.

  3. • New energy discovery comparable to the control of fire — for example, what is labelled zero point energy (ZPE) with the Casimir Effect. According to a recent article in the science journal Nature, this experiment has set the stage for a revolution in energy that will rival the discovery of fire.

  4. • Cloned humans threaten everything, calling into question ethics and politics.

  5. • Intelligent alien life confirmed, confronting humanity with possibly the biggest question ever.

  6. • The possibility of a food crisis — which is less of a wild card as the omens of food shortage are already visible and about 800 million people are living under the threat of famine or close to such a condition.

  7. • A catastrophic weather event rivalling or surpassing Hurricane Katrina.

  8. • A dramatic political shift to the far left in U.S. politics. Alternatively, a massive shift to the right.

  9. • Political upheaval in China.

  10. • A worldwide backlash against fundamentalist religions.

  11. • Widespread illness and death from tainted food (either accidental or deliberate).

Type
Chapter
Information
How Asia Can Shape the World
From the Era of Plenty to the Era of Scarcities
, pp. 520 - 524
Publisher: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
Print publication year: 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×