Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Acronyms and abbreviations
- Principal symbols
- 1 Introduction
- 2 The governing systems of equations
- 3 Numerical solutions to the equations
- 4 Physical-process parameterizations
- 5 Modeling surface processes
- 6 Model initialization
- 7 Ensemble methods
- 8 Predictability
- 9 Verification methods
- 10 Experimental design in model-based research
- 11 Techniques for analyzing model output
- 12 Operational numerical weather prediction
- 13 Statistical post processing of model output
- 14 Coupled special-applications models
- 15 Computational fluid-dynamics models
- 16 Climate modeling and downscaling
- Appendix: Suggested code structure and experiments for a simple shallow-fluid model
- References
- Index
13 - Statistical post processing of model output
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 June 2012
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Acronyms and abbreviations
- Principal symbols
- 1 Introduction
- 2 The governing systems of equations
- 3 Numerical solutions to the equations
- 4 Physical-process parameterizations
- 5 Modeling surface processes
- 6 Model initialization
- 7 Ensemble methods
- 8 Predictability
- 9 Verification methods
- 10 Experimental design in model-based research
- 11 Techniques for analyzing model output
- 12 Operational numerical weather prediction
- 13 Statistical post processing of model output
- 14 Coupled special-applications models
- 15 Computational fluid-dynamics models
- 16 Climate modeling and downscaling
- Appendix: Suggested code structure and experiments for a simple shallow-fluid model
- References
- Index
Summary
Background
The statistical post processing, or calibration, of operational NWP-model output is common because it can result in skill metrics that are equivalent to many years of improvement to the basic model. And, the greater skill is achieved at relatively little day-to-day expense, compared to other traditional approaches of trying to improve skill, such as through increasing the model resolution.
Historically, statistical post-processing methods were used to diagnose variables that could not be predicted directly by the low-resolution, early-generation NWP models. Standard model dependent variables associated with the large-scale conditions were statistically related to other poorly predicted or unpredicted weather variables such as freezing rain, fog, and cloud cover. However, many current-generation, high-resolution models can explicitly forecast such variables, and statistical correction methods are primarily employed to reduce systematic errors.
There is a variety of ways of classifying statistical post-processing methods. They may be categorized in terms of the statistical techniques used, as well as by the types of predictor data that are used for development of the statistical relationships. And, distinctions are made between static and dynamic methods. With static methods, statistical algorithms are developed for removing systematic error using a long training period that is based on the same version of the model, and the algorithms are applied without change for a significant period of time. Because of the computational expense associated with the calculation of the statistical relationships, models cannot be upgraded frequently because doing so requires recalculation of the relationships.
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- Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction , pp. 366 - 377Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2010
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